MEC&F Expert Engineers : 06/17/16

Friday, June 17, 2016

2 seriously injured after a Robinson R44 Raven II helicopter force landed to the west lakeshore of Crows Pond in Cape Cod, Mass. sustaining substantial damage




Pilot, passenger injured in helicopter crash on Cape Cod
Pilot seriously hurt, passenger critically injured
UPDATED 5:21 PM EDT Jun 17, 2016



CHATHAM, Mass. —A helicopter crashed Friday afternoon in Chatham and was partially submerged in the water when rescuers arrived.

The 2002 Robinson Helicopter crashed near the property of 204 Crows Pond Road. Pilot John Ryan, 48, and passenger Tyra Pacheco, 48, had to be freed by emergency personnel, police said.


Police said the helicopter had been hired to do aerial photography for a local real estate company.

Flying over the crash scene, Sky5 could see the wreckage of the small helicopter at the edge of the water.

Photos from the ground show the bent rotor blades and broken fuselage.




"It wasn't an out-of-control 360-type of crash that was happening," said witness Neil Sullivan. "Just an increase in velocity as it was going. I saw it pass the tree line and heard the thud."

"We saw it was in the water so we ran up the street and down the driveway," said Sarah Holt. "There were a couple people already on the beach."

Sullivan said he heard the passenger from the helicopter screaming in pain.

"The pilot was fantastic, keeping the passenger calm, but he was definitely expressing the pain he was in," Sullivan said.

"I could hear the girl moaning and moaning. The man wasn't too much better. He was trying to calm her down," said Eva Japowicz.

Ryan was taken to Cape Cod hospital in Hyannis with serious injuries. Pacheco was flown to Massachusetts General Hospital with critical injuries.

Ryan is from Scituate, and Pacheco is from Acushnet, police said.








Date:

17-JUN-2016
Time: 12:45 LT
Type:
Robinson R44 Raven II
Owner/operator: Ryan Rotors Inc
Registration: N141TM
C/n / msn: 1216
Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2
Other fatalities: 0
Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair)
Location: Crows Pond, North Chatham, Barnstable County, Cape Cod, MA - United States of America
Phase: Landing
Nature: Survey
Departure airport: Plymouth Muni (KPYM)
Destination airport: Plymouth Muni (KPYM)
Narrative:
The helicopter force landed to the west lakeshore sustaining substantial damage. The two POB were rescued and taken to hospital with serious injuries.
Sources:
http://www.tauntongazette.com/news/20160617/helicopter-crashes-in-cape-cod-pond-injuries-reported
http://www.wcvb.com/news/helicopter-crash-reported-in-crows-pond/40103556
http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20160617/helicopter-crashes-on-cape-cod-injuries-reported
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/17/helicopter-crash-chatham-cape-cod/
http://flightaware.com/resources/registration/N141TM

1 killed after a Piper PA-38-112 Tomahawk contacted a powerline and crushed and burned near Madison Airport, IN




Pilot killed in crash near Madison Airport
WHAS11 Staff , WHAS 6:57 PM. CDT June 16, 2016








MADISON, Ind. (WHAS11) -- Indiana authorities are investigating after a fiery plane crash that left one dead near Madison.

The crash happened around 11:30 a.m. Thursday, leaving the small community mourning.

Jefferson County Indiana Sheriff John Wallace said, “Any loss of life is tragic and we worship all life and it is tough on the community, absolutely."

Indiana authorities said a small engine plane crashed less than a mile from the Madison Municipal Airport. They said it clipped high voltage power lines, and then hit the ground, bursting into flames. The pilot, who has not yet been identified, was pronounced dead on the scene.

"It’s always tough when you speak with family members of someone who has died in a tragic accident or in any other way for that manner,” Wallace said.

WHAS11 was there when the sheriff delivered the difficult news to a woman who approached the scene, claiming the pilot was her husband.

The scene was deemed dangerous for hours as electrical teams worked to secure the power lines and neighbors left home with their pets as a safety precaution.

"We'll do a thorough investigation through the coroner's office and through the NTSB and hopefully get all the answers we can for them. That’s not much anytime someone loses their life, but it’s the best we can do,” Wallace said.

Officials said getting those answers is a top priority.

NTSB and FAA officials are expected on scene Thursday night and Friday morning to continue the investigation.



--------------//////////////////--------------------

Date:

16-JUN-2016
Time: 11:00+
Type:
Piper PA-38-112 Tomahawk
Owner/operator: Private
Registration: N2412D
C/n / msn: 38-79A0300
Fatalities: Fatalities: 1 / Occupants: 1
Other fatalities: 0
Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair)
Location: Madison Municipal Airport (KIMS), Madison, IN - United States of America
Phase: Take off
Nature: Private
Departure airport: Madison Muni (KIMS)
Destination airport:

Narrative:
The aircraft experienced a powerline contact and subsequent impact with the terrain southwest of Madison Municipal Airport (KIMS), Madison, Indiana. The airplane was destroyed by the impact with terrain and post-impact fire. The sole pilot onboard the aircraft received fatal injuries.
Sources:
http://m.wlky.com/news/1-killed-in-plane-crash-near-madison-airport/40084972
http://www.whas11.com/news/local/indiana/plane-crashes-near-madison-ind-airport/245998973
http://www.wdrb.com/story/32238235/update-sheriff-says-one-person-has-died-after-plane-crash-near-madison-ind-airport
http://www.asias.faa.gov/pls/apex/f?p=100:95:0::NO::P95_EVENT_LCL_DATE,P95_LOC_CITY_NAME,P95_REGIST_NBR:16-JUN-16,MADISON,N2412D
http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/NNum_Results.aspx?NNumbertxt=N2412D

2 killed after a Piper PA-31-325 Navajo crashed and burned near University Park Airport, State College, PA





2 dead in small plane crash at central Pa. airport June 16, 2016 4:55 PM






By Mike Danielewski / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Two people were killed Thursday morning when a small plane that took off from an airport in Washington County crashed in Centre County, officials said.

The airplane left the Washington County Airport in South Franklin about 7:30 a.m. and crashed as it approached an airport operated by Penn State University less than an hour later.

The two who were killed were the only people aboard the aircraft. Centre County Coroner Scott Sayers has not identified the victims as officials try to locate next of kin.

University spokeswoman Heather Robbins said tower crews at University Park Airport saw smoke coming from the aircraft as it approached about 8:20 a.m. Thursday. She said they tried to alert the pilot but got no response.

The airport was closed after the crash as authorities investigated. It was reopened at 10:30 a.m.

Officials at the Washington County Airport said the plane was a Piper Navajo owned by Aero National Inc., an air ambulance service.

It was unclear whether the plane was being used for medical services when it crashed. Aero National could not be reached Thursday evening.

The incident is under investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board.

A small, experimental aircraft crash-landed at the University Park Airport eight days ago. The pilot was not injured.

The Associated Press contributed. Mike Danielewski: mdanielewski@post-gazette.com, 412-263-4871 or @mdanielewski.



///////////////----------------//////////
Date:

16-JUN-2016
Time: 08:20
Type:
Piper PA-31-325 Navajo
Owner/operator: Aeronational Inc
Registration: N3591P
C/n / msn: 31-8012081
Fatalities: Fatalities: 2 / Occupants: 2
Other fatalities: 0
Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair)
Location: Near University Park Airport (KUNV), State College, PA - United States of America
Phase: Approach
Nature: Passenger
Departure airport: Washington County (KAFJ)
Destination airport: University Park (KUNV)
Narrative:
The aircraft impacted wooded terrain and a fire ensued while on approach from the east to University Park Airport (KUNV), State College, Pennsylvania. The airplane was destroyed and the two occupants onboard received fatal injuries.


Sources:
http://www.post-gazette.com/news/state/2016/06/16/Emergency-agency-Small-plane-down-in-central-Pennsylvania-penn-state-airport/stories/201606160147
http://www.wpxi.com/news/two-people-killed-when-plane-from-washington-county-crashes-near-penn-state/346411368
http://www.centredaily.com/news/local/article84175037.html
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N3591P/history/20160616/1140Z/KAFJ/KUNV
http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/NNum_Results.aspx?NNumbertxt=N3591P
http://www.asias.faa.gov/pls/apex/f?p=100:95:0::NO::P95_EVENT_LCL_DATE,P95_LOC_CITY_NAME,P95_REGIST_NBR:16-JUN-16,STATE%20COLLEGE,N3591P

http://aeronationalinc.com/our-fleet/
https://flightaware.com/photos/view/269247-4bf38eec918110750bb537eae7b194faa4494715/aircrafttype/PA31






///////////////--------------//////////






Pittsburgh eye surgeon, White Oak pilot killed in Centre County plane crash June 17, 2016 11:15 AM








Nittany Eye Associates
Dr. Robert Arffa






By Lauren Rosenblatt / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

A Pittsburgh eye surgeon was one of two people killed when a small plane from Washington County crashed trying to land Thursday at University Park Airport in Centre County.

Dr. Robert Arffa, 52, a noted corneal specialist and Lasik surgeon, was killed along with the plane’s pilot, Gary Orner, 60, of White Oak, according to Centre County coroner Scott Sayers.

Nittany Eye Associates & Laser Eye Center confirmed the death of Dr. Arffa, who worked out of the practice’s Bridgeville office.

“We, at Nittany Eye, are devastated by this news. Dr. Arffa was a world class surgeon. He was also a world class friend to all who knew him,” the optometry practice, based in State College, said on its Facebook page. “As he has done for every month in the last fifteen years, Dr. Arffa was traveling from Pittsburgh to State College to perform LASIK and YAG laser procedures at Nittany Eye.”

Staff contacted today at Nittany Eye’s various offices declined comment.

The small plane, a Piper Navajo owned by Washington, Pa.-based Aero National Inc., left the Washington County Airport in South Franklin about 7:30 a.m. and crashed less than an hour later as it approached the airport, which is operated by Penn State University.

Mr. Orner, who worked full time for Aero National, and Dr. Arffa were the only people aboard the aircraft.

University spokeswoman Heather Robbins said tower crews at University Park Airport saw smoke coming from the aircraft as it approached about 8:20 a.m. Thursday. She said they tried to alert the pilot but got no response.

The airport was closed after the crash as authorities investigated. It reopened at 10:30 a.m.

Thomas Pizzuti, president of Aero National, said today that “Gary will be greatly missed by his friends at Aero National.”

"Gary was an experienced pilot and had flown this scheduled charter with Dr. Arffa on numerous occasions," he said.

Mr. Pizzuti said his company extends its “deepest sympathies to the Orner and Arffa families at this very difficult time.”

The incident is under investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board.

A small, experimental aircraft crash-landed at the University Park Airport eight days ago. The pilot, the lone occupant, was not injured.

A 52-year-old laborer was crushed and killed by a falling steel beam in Washington State







Incident scene showing the collapsed steel structure that struck the victim during demolition. The victim was struck by the steel beam in the center of the photo.

 Industry: Site Preparation Contractors
Task: Demolition of steel structure
Occupation: Laborer
Type of Incident: Struck by
Incident Date: June 8, 2015
Release Date: June 7, 2016
SHARP Report No.: 71-147-2016

Washington Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation

In June of 2015, a 52-year-old laborer was crushed and killed by a falling steel beam. He was helping to demolish a 30-foot-high steel structure that had supported a piece of machinery when it unexpectedly collapsed.

The victim was a friend of his employer, who had hired him and another laborer to assist in a demolition and metal scrapping project. The employer had been involved in demolition work and scrapping for 40 years. The victim had not previously done demolition work. The employer had arranged with a food processing plant to demolish the steel structure that had supported a retired cyclone air separator and then sell the steel for scrap.

The structure was supported by four steel column legs. It had been moved from its original location and placed on slightly sloping pavement in the plant’s yard. The structure's legs were of different lengths, which, combined with the slope, caused it to lean about four feet in the direction of the slope. The employer and his crew decided to lower it in the direction of the lean using a rope attached to a  forklift. Working from a platform elevated by the forklift, the victim used a cutting torch to make several cuts to the structure.

The forklift was repositioned and a rope was attached to it and rigged to several parts of the metal structure. The victim then climbed up a couple of rungs on a stepladder and cut through a cross bracing. As he was doing this, the structure unexpectedly collapsed. It fell in the opposite direction than was planned. He was crushed under a steel beam and died at the scene.

Requirements
• Prior to permitting employees to start demolition operations, you must make an engineering survey by a competent person, of the structure to determine structural integrity and the possibility of unplanned collapse of any portion of the structure. You must similarly check adjacent structures where employees may be exposed. You must have in writing, evidence that such a survey has been performed. See WAC 296-155-775(1)
• You must conduct demolition of all buildings and structures under competent supervision, and you must afford safe working conditions to the employees.

See WAC 296-155-775(5)
Recommendations
• All personnel involved in a demolition project need to be aware of the types of hazards that are present and the safety precautions necessary to control these hazards.
• Create a project specific demolition safety work plan with step-by-step instructions how the work can be accomplished in a safe manner.
• Inform employees of the elements of the demolition plan and ensure they conduct their work activities in a safe manner.

Resources
• Demolition requirements, Washington Administrative Code 296-155 Part S. Demolition, Part S, WAC 296-155
• Demolition Fact Sheet. OSHA Demolition Fact Sheet OSHA

A woman and young child died after witnesses say the woman stayed inside a burning SUV in Athens Park


Witnesses say woman, child stayed inside burning SUV in Athens Park
 



The charred remains of an SUV sit along the curb in Athens Park where a woman and child died on Thursday, June 16, 2016. (KABC)

Friday, June 17, 2016 08:54AM
ATHENS PARK, LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- A woman and young child died after witnesses say the woman stayed inside a burning SUV in Athens Park Thursday night.

Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies received calls of a car on fire in the 300 block of West 124th Street around 9:40 p.m. When authorities arrived, an SUV was fully engulfed in flames. The fire was quickly knocked down and two bodies were discovered inside.

During the initial investigation, witnesses at the park said a woman was standing by the car with a child between the age of 3 and 4. As the car caught fire, she kept getting in and out of it, and at one point placed the child in the car as she climbed in.

Witnesses said they yelled at her to get out of the car, but she ignored them. The flames overtook the vehicle, killing her and the child.

The Los Angeles County Department of the Medical Examiner-Coroner will determine the identities of the woman and child.

Authorities are investigating why the woman may have wanted to kill herself and the child and how the fire started. No further information was available.

The Sherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County more than doubled in size overnight, scorching 4,000 acres


Sherpa Fire grows to 4,000 acres in Santa Barbara County





The Sherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County more than doubled in size overnight, scorching 4,000 acres as the blaze continued to burn Friday. (KABC)





By Marc Cota-Robles and ABC7.com staff
Updated 25 mins ago
GAVIOTA, Calif. (KABC) -- The Sherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County spread to 4,000 acres, officials said, as the blaze continued to burn Friday.

The Los Padres National Forest division of the U.S. Forest Service posted on twitter Friday morning saying the fire had scorched 4,000 acres and was at 5 percent containment.

Firefighters worked through the night to battle the flames whipped up by sundowner winds, which reached upwards of 35 mph. This allowed the fire to explode in acreage.

Fire officials said one out-building was destroyed by flames overnight.

Approximately 1,230 fire personnel are assigned to the blaze. No injuries have been reported.

The winds and temperatures decreased Friday morning and afternoon, giving firefighters a chance to make some progress during the day. However, authorities say the winds are expected to pick up strength in the evening, and the blaze will likely get even larger.

"We back out a little bit and see where we can hold those lines, anticipate where that fire is going to go. It's very dangerous in those sort of situations with the sundowner winds to put firefighters directly in front of the fire," said Amber Anderson with Santa Barbara City Fire, adding that they're trying to protect property and keep firefighters safe at the same time.

The blaze broke out Wednesday afternoon and quickly spread from 50 acres to 1,100 by Thursday morning. The Sherpa Fire has prompted mandatory evacuations of roughly 400 homes and ranches in the area. Authorities said 270 structures are under threat from the blaze.

Twice on Thursday the Sherpa Fire also caused the closure of the 101 Freeway in both directions along the Gaviota coast between Buellton and Goleta. It was reopened shortly before 5 a.m. Friday.

The area surrounding the blaze is remote, but there are homes and ranches, including the Circle Bar B Ranch. Fire crews are surrounding the ranch just in case the winds shift. More than a dozen guests and 45 horses were evacuated.

This canyon has not burned like this since the massive Refugio fire back in 1955.

Strong winds and steep and rugged terrain have made the firefight difficult for crews battling the blaze. At one point, the fire jumped over the center divider of the 101 Freeway due to the strong winds.

Eight air tankers, three heavy heli-tankers and medium helicopters and ground crews continue to stop the spread of the fire.

The American Red Cross has set up two shelters for evacuees at Santa Ynez Union High School at 2975 E. Highway 246; Wake Center at 300 N. Turnpike Rd.; and Goleta Valley Community Center at 5679 Hollister Ave.

Residents who need assistance with animals should call (805) 681-4332. Shelter for large animals is available at Earl Warren Showgrounds at 3400 Calle Real.

Firefighters are battling a four-alarm fire at a store in southwest Houston.


Firefighters battle four-alarm fire at SW Houston store






Updated 26 mins ago

HOUSTON (KTRK) -- Firefighters are battling a four-alarm fire at a store in southwest Houston.

The fire began around 12:25pm at the business on Harwin Drive near South Gessner Road.

There is heavy fire, smoke and water damage to the entire store, according to HFD. Additional alarms have been requested, in part, for manpower.








Firefighters battle a four-alarm fire in southwest Houston.

Officials say arson investigators are headed to the scene.

Traffic in the area (Gessner and Harwin) will be restricted during the rush hour time period.



We're following this story on Eyewitness News. Watch for updates on air, online and on our mobile news app.

Turmoil in emerging markets, increased localization of internet networks within country borders and financial repression are some of the risks identified in this year's Swiss Re SONAR "New emerging risk insights" report.

21 emerging risks for the insurance industry and the global economy

2016 Swiss Re annual emerging risk update

A new report from Swiss Re offers insights into emerging risks, those newly developing or evolving risks whose potential impact and scope are not yet fully understood. (Photo: Shutterstock)
A new report from Swiss Re offers insights into emerging risks, those newly developing or evolving risks whose potential impact and scope are not yet fully understood. (Photo: Shutterstock)
Turmoil in emerging markets, increased localization of internet networks within country borders and financial repression are some of the risks identified in this year's Swiss Re SONAR "New emerging risk insights" report. 
The report offers insights into emerging risks, those newly developing or evolving risks whose potential impact and scope are not yet fully acknowledged.
.
The report also highlights human-induced earthquakes, mass migration, a crisis of trust in institutions, and technology-related topics, such as the rise of precision medicine and distributed energy generation.

Anticipating future risks


"Risk management is not just about managing risks in the present. It is about anticipating future ones to make sure we will be in a position to deal with them," says Patrick Raaflaub, Swiss Re's group chief risk officer. "These risks may only fully reveal themselves to future generations. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't act today to reduce uncertainty and alleviate their burden."

Related: Here are the 21 trends that pose the biggest risks to global business in 2015
The identified risks are relevant to life and non-life insurance areas and are presented with the goal of helping industry players prepare for new scenarios.
Here are the 21 emerging risks that Swiss Re says could have the biggest impact on the insurance industry and the wider global economy:
Uber and Lyft signs displayed on vehicle windshield
Traditionally, insurers absorbed some of the risks associated today with the sharing economy into their general risk pool. (AP Photo)

1. Risks of the sharing economy


Medium impact | >3 years

risk graph
While the sharing economy may provide new business opportunities for the insurance industry, it also brings legal risks and challenge to adequately model and price the assocated risks. For insurers, the rise and increasing sophistication of the sharing economy raises questions regarding the appropriate form of coverage. 
The sharing economy has also reached the very foundations of insurance. Peer-to-peer insurance is gaining traction — a model that is similar to traditional mutual insurance, but takes it to another level by using new technology. Peer-to-peer insurance raises questions of adverse and self-selection, pricing and reserving adequacy, and its ability to cope with catastrophic events.
Potential impacts:
  • Traditional insurers may face pressure from new players that can access new client segments through a sharing economy set-up.
  • Insufficient loss experience could expose insurers to inadequate pricing models for the "hybrid risks" posed by the sharing economy.
Opposition supporters wave flags during an opposition protest in Belgrade, Serbia
Opposition supporters wave flags during an opposition protest in Belgrade, Serbia, April 30, 2016. Thousands of opposition supporters have protested in front of the Serbian state electoral commission what their leaders are saying is widespread vote rigging by the ruling populists. (Photo: Darko Vojinovic/AP Photo)

2. Crisis of trust


Medium impact | 0-3 years

crisis of trust emerging risk
Citizens increasingly distrust public institutions, particularly governments, large corporations, especially banks and multinationals and the traditional media.
While there are many reasons for the decline in trust, at least part of it is because of rising inequality, a sense of disenfranchisement and rising job insecurity, resulting in a growing alienation between the elites and middle classes. 
Potential impacts:
  • A decline of trust in insurance in general may hurt business.
  • A more-predatory attitude may lead to an increased number of unwarranted claims.
Women queue as they wait for distribution of hygiene kits
Women queue as they wait for distribution of hygiene kits at the premises of the old international airport which is used as a temporary camp in Athens, on May 3, 2016. Germany and some other EU countries are planning to ask the European Commission for an extension of border controls within the Schengen passport-free travel zone for another six months because they fear a new wave of migrants. (Photo: Yorgos Karahalis/AP Photo)

3. Mass migration


Low impact | 0-3 years

mass migration risks
Migration is a global phenomenon and has become a pressing economic issue, particularly in light of the recent refugee flows from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe which have reached a level unprecedented in recent history.
Migration pressures across borders will likely continue to increase due to a number of unresolved, protracted crises in many regions of the world.
Potential impacts:
  • While this is a major issue for society as a whole, Swiss Re expects only minor impacts on the insurance industry.
  • Variations in populations because of a massive inflow of migrants may affect insurance by shifting the characteristics of the insured, such as life expectancy, immunization/vaccination status, prevalence of specific diseases, lifestyle choices or product preferences.
  • The risk exposure of buildings used as refugee accommodation might need to be reassessed because  higher-than-expected occupancy. The insurance industry could offer expertise to ensure that adequate loss prevention measures are established.

Bahraini anti-government protesters burn old furniture during clashes with riot police
Bahraini anti-government protesters burn old furniture during clashes with riot police in Daih, Bahrain, March 14, 2016. Bahraini police detained a political activist and her year-old son on Monday in an operation that came on the fifth anniversary of Saudi and Emirati soldiers putting down Arab Spring-inspired protests in the tiny island kingdom. (Photo: Hasan Jamali/AP Photo)

4. Viral leaderless mobilization


Low impact | 0-3 years

viral leaderless mobilization risks
The technological capabilities of smartphones and the impact of social media increase the number of communication channels and the power of  "leaderless mobilizations" — the viral spreading of messages and calls for action that can result in "flash mobs" or public shaming. This could seriously damage corporate reputations.
Rallying people is easier in a social environment where distrust towards governments, corporate institutions and organizations is widespread, and individual frustration, youth unemployment and disillusionment are high. Particularly the young and the digitally savy are easily mobilized. But also among the broader middle class, trust in the ability of elites to govern is evaporating fast, fueling a general sense of distrust and alienation from the elite. This may result in more and more violent riots and demonstrations that are difficult to contain, which in turn could result in more property losses.
Potential impacts:
  • More property and business interruption losses from riots are to be expected.
  • Campaigns that hurt a company’s reputation and lead to customer and stock valuation losses, with liability suits by shareholder activists as secondary effects.
  • Manufacturers and distributers of smartphones and apps developers may be held liable for violent events from viral leaderless mobilization, resulting in more liability claims.
Youth march during a protest against proposed changes to France's work week and layoff practices
Youth march during a protest against proposed changes to France's work week and layoff practices, in Paris, Tuesday, April 5, 2016. Socialist President Francois Hollande's government, desperately trying to lower unemployment, says the bill will encourage hiring, especially of young people. But unions and students say it erodes hard-fought worker protections. The banner reads: "Labor law. Out". (Photo: Christophe Ena)

5. The future of work


Medium impact | >3 years

The future of work emerging risks
With the rise of artificial intelligence and robotics, industrialized countries are on the verge of a fourth industrial revolution, also known as the industrial Internet of Things or Industry 4.0. This gives rise to "smart manufacturing" where automation, machine-to-machine communication and other high-tech applications dominate industrial production.
While the fourth industrial revolution will create new jobs and transform work qualitatively, a high portion of paid labor jobs is also expected to vanish. This will affect the middle classes, and ultimately the insurance customer base: if people have no jobs they cannot buy insurance.
Potential impacts:
  • The digital industrial revolution will increase demand for information and communication technology and corresponding insurance products. Mass unemployment could result in a shrinking customer base for personal insurance and a reduced portfolio for employers’ liability if newly created jobs are not outweighing the loss.
  • Insurance might find new opportunities in supporting the growth of a new informal economy.
seeding stem cells onto a synthetic polymer ear
Dr. Michelle Griffin, a plastic research fellow, demonstrates for photographs seeding stem cells onto a synthetic polymer ear at her research facility in the Royal Free Hospital in London, March 31, 2014. In a north London hospital, scientists are growing noses, ears and blood vessels in the laboratory in a bold attempt to make body parts using stem cells. (Photo: Matt Dunham/AP Photo)

6. Precision medicine


Medium impact | >3 years

precision medicine emerging risks

Precision medicine is an emerging approach for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account a person’s genes, environment and lifestyle. The potential for precision medicine is regarded to be huge, but there are still some drawbacks. 
Potential impacts: 
  • New data types and new data sources will create information management challenges, and data protection and transfer might become a bigger liability issue.
  • For insurers, personalized diagnostics and therapies may increase costs for health insurance in the mid-term, but could reduce overall health care expenditure in the long-term by increasing treatment effectiveness and efficiency.
  • With an increase of the predictive value of personalized genomic data, the insurance industry will be increasingly faced with anti-selection in life insurance and an increased lapse risk. Ultimately, it might even lead to a creeping erosion of the solidarity principle on which insurance is based.
Filets of Copper River Salmon from Alaska in Seattle
Who does and does not benefit from taking supplements of omega-3 fatty acids, the good oils found in fish such as salmon, tuna and sardines? (Photo: Ted S. Warren/AP Photo)

7. Nutraceuticals


Low impact | 0-3 years

nutraceuticals emerging risks
Ageing and increasingly health conscious populations make for a growing market for products which promise to help prevent lifestyle-related diseases. Nutraceuticals are products deriving from food sources that claim to contain extra medical or health benefits in addition to a basic nutritional value.
The global market for nutraceuticals is expanding rapidly and is expected to reach $278 billion by 2021, from $172 billion in 2014.
Potential impacts:
  •  How should nutraceuticals be regulated and classified? The answer has an impact on the corresponding insurance covers.
  • The novelty of the products and the lack of consistent rules make underwriting nutraceuticals challenging for re/insurers.
  • Claims can be unique and complicated because of the composition of the products, labelling and advertising issues, lack of clarity on health effects and difficulty demonstrating causation.
a feeding female Anopheles stephensi mosquito crouching forward and downward on her forelegs on a human skin surface
In this photo provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a feeding female Anopheles stephensi mosquito crouching forward and downward on her forelegs on a human skin surface, in the process of obtaining its blood meal through its sharp, needle-like labrum, which it had inserted into its human host. A powerful new technology holds the promise of rapidly altering genes to make malaria-proof mosquitoes, eliminate their Zika-carrying cousins or wipe out an invasive species, but advisers to the government say these so-called "gene drives" aren't ready to let loose in the wild just yet. (Photo: James Gathany/CDC via AP Photo)

8. Gene drives


Medium impact | >3 years

gene drives emerging risk
Gene drives are genetic systems that circumvent the rules of normal sexual reproduction and greatly increase the odds that a particular trait will be passed on to offspring.
Gene drives have the potential to fix difficult biological problems. For example, they could be applied to genetically modify mosquitoes and other disease vectors so they can no longer transmit diseases such as malaria, dengue fever or the Zika virus. They could also be used to exterminate invasive species or to break the herbicide resistance of common weeds by altering their genetic make-up.
Gene drives are a very powerful tool which could get out of control. Scientists have begun to call for increased regulation, but international governance is still lacking.
Potential impacts:
  • Huge upside potential, but also uncertainties, mainly regarding the environmental impact.
  • For insurers, a commercial application of gene drives could trigger genetically modified organism-related losses, such as under the EU’s Environmental Liability Directive.
steaks displayed for sale at a grocery store
In this Jan. 18, 2010 file photo, steaks and other beef products are displayed for sale at a grocery store in McLean, Va. The meat industry is seeing red over the dietary guidelines. The World Health Organization’s cancer agency said on Oct. 26, 2015, that processed meats such as ham and sausage can lead to colon and other cancers, and red meat is probably cancer-causing as well. (Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

9. Meat consumption


Medium impact | >3 years

meat consumption emerging risks
While traditional diets are increasingly replaced by ones higher in refined sugars, refined fats, oils and meats in many parts of the world, meat consumption is coming under pressure in many parts of the Western World. There is pressure on meat eaters in some parts of the world to cut down their consumption — be it for health or for environmental reasons. 
Further changes in dietary patterns are to be expected, with some implications for the farming industry and all stakeholders in the associated value chain.
Potential impacts:
  • Large-scale dietary shifts would have a significant economic effect on livestock farmers and the entire associated supply chain, including insurance.
  • Class actions against stakeholders in the meat value chain are possible, similar to those that already shook the tobacco industry.
People check an electronic stock indicator of a securities firm in Tokyo
People check an electronic stock indicator of a securities firm in Tokyo. (Photo: Shizuo Kambayashi/AP Photo)

10. The great monetary experiment


High impact | 0-3 years

The great monetary experiment emerging risk

The uncertainty from unconventional monetary policies continues to increase. What is certain is the negative impact of low interest rates on pension funds, retirees and insurance companies.
Potential impacts:
  • Negative interest rates will further undermine the conventional business model of the insurance industry, particularly life insurers, and pension funds.
  • M&A activity may become more intense as insurance companies partner in order to increase economies of scale and retain earnings power.
 man walks past a bank's electronic board showing the share index around the world at Hong Kong Stock Exchange
In this Aug. 27, 2015 file photo, a man walks past a bank's electronic board showing the share index around the world at Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Investors have yanked $40 billion from emerging-market stocks this year, a record pace of withdrawals, as a slowdown in China has hammered companies that supply raw materials. (Photo: Vincent Yu/AP Photo)

11. Emerging market crises 2.0


High impact | 0-3 years

emerging market crises 2.0 risks
For years, emerging markets have attracted capital inflows due to low interest rates in advanced economies. Many emerging market commodity producers have also benefited from high commodities prices.
Excess supply of commodities along with the slowdown in economic growth in China have lowered commodity prices (e.g., oil, metals), stressing many emerging markets. This, along with a tightening bias to U.S. monetary policy, has led to net capital outflows from emerging markets for the second consecutive year in 2015.
Parallels have been drawn to the emerging market crises in the late 1990s, triggering fears of an “emerging market crisis 2.0.”
As exposure to emerging markets has grown over the past two decades, such effects are likely to be bigger than in the past.
Potential impacts:
  • Political turmoil and riots may result in higher underwriting losses, especially in property, personal and commercial lines. Corporate defaults may produce credit losses, and interruptions to infrastructure projects would have adverse impacts on surety books.
  • Large-scale investment losses in emerging markets may trigger lawsuits from shareholders, resulting in liability and Directors & Officers claims.
An Indian woman uses her mobile phone as she waits for a bus in New Delhi, India
An Indian woman uses her mobile phone as she waits for a bus in New Delhi, India, Sept. 27, 2015. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisions a "Digital India," where ubiquitous high-speed internet access will empower entrepreneurs to build software and other technology products that will raise the standard of living in a country where many households are still impoverished. (Photo: Tsering Topgyal/AP Photo)

12. Internet fragmentation


High impact | >3 years

Internet fragmentation risks
Cyber crime and cyber espionage have grown strongly over the last few years and have made the internet less safe. Governments are concerned about this development and have been building up their capabilities to prosecute criminals and hackers in the cyber space.
International negotiations are currently under way to agree on how the internet should be governed, but no consensus or international treaty has emerged yet. While the debate is still under way, there is a chance that disconnected national and regional nets will become more common. Such developments would increase IT costs and regulation and would hurt insurance companies operating across borders.
Potential impacts:
  • Evolving regulation would increase operational risk and could trigger more liability claims (Directors & Officers, fidelity); it may also massively increase costs for setting up and maintaining separate legal structures.
  • Technology companies, such as providers of cross-border cloud services, could see a disruption of their business model and might face liability suits from customers if they could no longer access data stored on cross-border servers.
Teaching IBM's Watson the language of security
IBM's Chief Watson Security Architect Jeb Linton demonstrating to University of Maryland, Baltimore County student Lisa Mathews how to teach IBM's Watson the language of security, May 10, 2016, Baltimore. IBM will work with eight universities to train Watson for cyber security, so that the next generation of security professionals can user the power of "cognitive" technology to defend against cyber attacks. (Photo: Mitro Hood/IBM)

13. The FinTech risk landscape


Medium impact | >3 years

The FinTech risk landscape
FinTech is an umbrella term for technology-driven financial services that promise efficiency gains and lower costs and prices thanks to disintermediation, new funding sources (peer-to-peer) and artificial intelligence-based advising. Global FinTech investments have tripled from 2013 to 2014 and doubled again from 2014 to 2015, with the bulk made in the U.S. Regulators are pondering whether new and different regulation is needed or whether existing regulations would still suffice.
InsurTech has emerged as a niche within FinTech, offering innovative insurance solutions based on new technology platforms and software. Traditional financial services players have begun to embrace the trend while venture capitalists are financing numerous start-ups. FinTech thus poses possibly revolutionary risks to the business model and the internal management of established financial services players.
Increased exposure to cyber risks, but also the potential risk of a valuation bubble and issues around liability — for example in the case of artificial intelligence-based stock trading — make FinTech a tangible challenge for the insurance industry.
Potential impacts:
  • Immature or badly protected technology platforms are considerably exposed to cyber risks.
  • Badly implemented FinTech solutions leading to failures and losses may trigger liability claims by consumers, savers and investors.
IBM Blockchain user interface designers, Dante Guintu, left and Andrea Lee, work on secure blockchain apps
IBM Blockchain user interface designers, Dante Guintu, left and Andrea Lee, work on secure blockchain apps at IBM San Francisco on February 16, 2016. (Photo: George Nikitin/IBM)

14. Blockchain risks


Medium impact | >3 years

Blockchain emerging risks
The blockchain, best known as the technology that underpins the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, is a distributed ledger technology to certify ownership and verify transactions, streamline processes, facilitate verification, or share approval. In the insurance world, SafeShare, a London-based start-up, offers a blockchain-based insurance product aimed at the sharing economy.
The blockchain could revolutionize industries where heavy documentation is needed, including the insurance sector where it could challenge the traditional underwriting value chain thanks to its potential for efficiency.
The blockchain remains vulnerable to cyber risks, though it seems very difficult to hack by conventional methods. In combination with encryption, it could also be used for criminal activities, such as remunerating hackers.
Regulators are seeing the blockchain as uncharted territory to be penetrated which could eventually result in over- or inadequate regulation, distorting and stifling the growth and application of the technology.
Potential impacts:
  • The blockchain may undermine underwriting and the insurance value chain and could thus pose a challenge to traditional market players.
  • Reliance on the blockchain in many walks of life may increase the exposure to cyber risks.
IBM Research Data Scientist Eric Clark explores wearable technologies that could help monitor and analyze biological data from study subjects
IBM research data scientist Eric Clark explores wearable technologies that could help monitor and analyze biological data from study subjects on April 7, 2016, at IBM's T.J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown, N.Y. IBM and Pfizer are collaborating to create a first-of-a-kind remote monitoring system to support patients with Parkinson's disease. This non invasive, real-time approach to patient data will offer new insights into disease progression and treatment plans. By applying advanced analytics and machine learning to sensor data, the hope is to transform how neurological diseases are diagnosed and treated. (Photo: Jon Simon/IBM)

15. Phoney data


Medium impact | >3 years

Phoney data emerging risks

Data integrity may become a problem for insurance companies collecting data on customers, for example via wearables, as there may be incentives to manipulate input in order to benefit from rate discounts or to escape regulation.

Intrusion into sensors and apps and the manipulation of data will be amplified with the adoption of the Internet of Things.
Potential impacts:
  • Using manipulated or phoney data sets for insurance modelling may result in mispriced risks and unexpected claims.
  • Data manipulation could exacerbate insurance fraud.

Smartphone displaying social media icons
Hackers and other cyber criminals are busy exploring how they could tap into the potentially highly profitable market of stealing and selling digital identities. (Photo: Shutterstock)

16. Digital identities


Low impact | 0-3 years

digital identities emerging risks
Thanks to social media, billions of people now have digital identities. As employers are increasingly recruiting through social networks and insurance companies may soon start vetting applications through “Google checks,” the integrity and accuracy of such digital identities, which are very vulnerable to attacks and hacking, becomes paramount.
Hackers and other cyber criminals are busy exploring how they could tap into the potentially highly profitable market of stealing and selling digital identities, and the number of attempts to breach data of individuals, companies and governmental institutions has grown together with our increasing reliance on digital tools.
Potential impacts:
  • Insurance lines that rely on personal data (e.g., health, life) are strongly exposed to manipulations of digital identities. Due diligence in data collection and investments in strong data protection will drive up costs for insurance companies.
  • Restoring digital identities after a loss could involve costly legal battles which could have an impact on legal fees paid by insurance companies.
electricians Adam Hall, right, and Steven Gabert, install solar panels on a roof for Arizona Public Service company in Goodyear, Ariz.
Electricians Adam Hall, right, and Steven Gabert, install solar panels on a roof for Arizona Public Service company in Goodyear, Ariz.  (Photo: Matt York/AP Photo)

17. Distributed energy generation


Medium impact | >3 years

Distributed energy generation emerging risks
Distributed energy consists of a range of smaller-scale and modular devices designed to provide electricity in locations close to consumers. This includes fossil and renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaic arrays, wind, combustion and steam turbines, as well as energy storage devices such as batteries and flywheels or combined heat and power systems.
In a distributed energy set-up, millions of households will develop from consumers-only into energy producers. This will have far-reaching implications for our whole energy system, especially for power grids.
Potential impacts:
  • For re/insurers, the move towards distributed energy production could be an opportunity to contribute to de-risking the new technologies.
  • Smart grids entail significant cyber risks which should be taken into account while underwriting them.
  • Economic pressure on traditional utility companies might result in reduced maintenance of legacy large-scale operations which could increase property risk exposure.
Joel Woelfel, front, a technician at the Oklahoma Geological Survey, prepares an in-ground container for a seismic monitor
Joel Woelfel, front, a technician at the Oklahoma Geological Survey, prepares an in-ground container for a seismic monitor near Waynoka, Okla., March 22, 2016. In the rear is Jefferson Chang, an OGS seismologist. The OGS is installing 10 seismic stations in the area to monitor seismic activity. The OGS already has over 40 stations in the state. (Photo: Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo)

18. Human-induced earthquakes


Medium impact | 0-3 years

Human-induced earthquakes: a new protection gap?
As the increase in earthquake activity associated with man-made actions is a relatively new situation, most risk models used by the insurance industry do not incorporate the associated increase in seismic hazard.
Losses arising from the rapidly rising number of human-induced seismic events are largely uninsured or fall into the deductible of traditional earthquake insurance products, which have been designed to protect against a total loss rather than damage arising from frequent small earthquakes.
Potential impact:
  • There is an increasing likelihood for litigation/class actions against hydrofracking operators, with significant accumulation risks for re/insurers when events trigger claims on the property and on the casualty side.
Related: Fracking and earthquakes: What's covered?
Argus, a remote vehicle submersible
Mark DeRoche, a deck engineer with the Institute for Exploration, directs his crew to slowly raise "Argus," a remote vehicle submersible.  (Photo: Jim Bovin/AP Photo)

19. Seabed mining


Low impact | >3 years

Seabed mining emerging risks
Seabed mining is an experimental industrial field focusing on extracting submerged minerals and deposits from the sea floor — be it by submerged robotic excavation machinery, large-scale vacuuming of the sea floor or other techniques.
Scientists and environmental groups are raising concerns about the potential impact of seabed mining and deep sea mining on ecosystems that are very vulnerable to physical disturbance because of fragile habitats and extremely slow recovery rates.
Potential impact:
  • Property and liability exposures of seabed mining activities could be significant, but are hard to estimate due to lack of experience and a potentially shifting regulatory environment.
A pedestrian walks along the East Side Esplanade in an area beneath the FDR drive just north of the Manhattan Bridge
A pedestrian walks along the East Side Esplanade in an area beneath the FDR Drive just north of the Manhattan Bridge, left, Jan. 19, 2016, in New York. Lower Manhattan is expected to receive an additional $176 million in federal funding for a large-scale flood protection system that will eventually wrap from Montgomery Street in Chinatown, around the tip of the borough, and up through Battery Park City. The area shown in this photograph would be affected by the plan. (Photo: Kathy Willens/AP Photo)

20. Geoengineering


Low impact | >3 years

Geoengineering emerging risks

Geoengineering is the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change. It has been touted as a way to reduce global warming. 
Potential impact:

  • Large-scale geoengineering has potentially huge liability exposures due to unintended side effects. However, it will be very difficult to establish whether a natural catastrophe stems from a man-made action or not, and it may even be impossible to establish liability in a legal sense.
plastic floating in ocean
An estimated 4 to 12 million tons of plastic enter the ocean from land each year. (Photo: iStock)

21. Ocean pollution from microplastics


Low impact | 0-3 years

Ocean pollution from microplastics emerging risks
Plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the marine environment. An estimated 4 to 12 million tons of plastic enter the ocean from land each year, and that number is predicted to increase exponentially by 2025, if we don’t improve our waste management infrastructure.
Microplastics are tiny pieces of plastic which find their way to the ocean when cosmetics products such as facial scrubs or toothpaste, which contain them as scrubbers and abrasive beads, wash down the drain or when larger plastic objects break down in the seawater.
As plastics do not break down for many decades, the amount of microplastic in the oceans will continue to increase. Environmental groups have started advocating for a ban on microplastics, and regulation is beginning to catch up.
Potential impact:
  • For the insurance industry, there could be implications for liability covers arising from product liability for the manufacturers of microplastics and various products containing them, and recall for polluted fish/seafood products.