MEC&F Expert Engineers : 05/26/17

Friday, May 26, 2017

SPEED AND ALCOHOL A GREAT WAY TO REACH YOUR FINAL DESTINATION PREMATURELY: speeding and drunk driver, Kelsey Campbell, 19, crashes his car and causes the death of passenger Zachary Elwell, 21, on Route 131 in South Thomaston, Maine





  Zachary Elwell, 21, dead
  Zachary Elwell, 21, dead
  Zachary Elwell, 21, dead

 Zachary Elwell, 21, dead


SPEED AND ALCOHOL ARE A GREAT WAY TO REACH YOUR FINAL DESTINATION PREMATURELY
Police identify victim in fatal South Thomaston, ME crash

Two others were injured in the single-car rollover that police say involved excessive speed and alcohol.


By Stephen BettsThe Courier-Gazette


SOUTH THOMASTON, MAINE — The Knox County Sheriff’s Office said it will forward findings of its investigation into Thursday night’s fatal car crash to the district attorney’s office.

One person died and two others were injured following the May 25 crash on Route 131.


According to Knox County Sheriff’s Office Chief Deputy Timothy Carroll, passenger, Zachary Elwell, 21, of St. George was pronounced dead at the scene. The driver, Kelsey Campbell, 19, of South Thomaston, and another passenger, Austin Jurkowski, 19, of St. George, were taken to the hospital with minor injuries.

The crash occurred on Route 131 in South Thomaston near Alder Lane just after 7 p.m.

The chief deputy reported that witnesses stated that a car was traveling at a high rate of speed and had just passed a vehicle before going off the road, striking many trees, and rolling over multiple times.

Elwell was ejected from the vehicle.

“It is also believed that alcohol will be a contributing factor,” Carroll stated.

Carroll said Friday that the department will be gathering more evidence and conducting interviews to see what led to the crash. He said a blood test was taken of the driver, which is standard when there is a fatal crash.

Once the investigation is complete, the information will be given to the district attorney’s office to determine if charges are warranted, he said.

South Thomaston Fire and Ambulance, the St. George Fire Department and Thomaston Fire Department assisted at the scene. The Knox County Regional Communications Center dispatchers helped coordinate all crews involved.

Route 131 was closed to through traffic from Westbrook Street on the Thomaston end and near Harbor Road Veterinary Hospital on the St. George end.

The road was reopened shortly before 11:30 p.m.

Knox County Sheriff’s Office Reconstruction and Mapping Teams are continuing with the investigation.
 

SPEED AND ALCOHOL ARE A GREAT WAY TO REACH YOUR FINAL DESTINATION PREMATURELY.  RIP.

Car driver dies after he crossed over the center line of Cherryville Road around a curve and collided with a Slatington Volunteer Fire Department truck in Allen Township, PA







A Slatington, PA firetruck early Friday collided with a car that crossed the centerline of Cherryville Road, killing the driver of the car, according to the Northampton County coroner.

The deceased driver was a male in his 20s, said Coroner Zachary Lysek. He said the truck with the Slatington Volunteer Fire Departrment was southbound and headed for routine maintenance when it was hit shortly after 7 a.m. by the northbound car at a curve in the roadway.

Firefighters, traffic police and paramedics arrived at the scene — about 2 miles north of Northampton — where the road winds through open fields in Allen Township. Emergency crews shut down Cherryville Road in the area of Kohls Road. Lysek arrived around 8 a.m.

The crash is about 100 yards north of Cihylik Farms and Greenhouses.

The crash site is the same area where a 60-year-old Whitehall Township woman was killed in a head-on crash on May 3, 2016.



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ALLEN TWP., Pa. - Authorities in Northampton County said the victim of a fatal wreck in Allen Township on Friday crossed over the center line and collided with a Slatington Volunteer Fire Department truck.

The driver of the car was a man in his mid-20s who died at the scene shortly after 7 a.m., according to Northampton County Coroner Zach Lysek.

His car was driving north in the 4000 block of Cherryville Road when it reportedly crossed over the center line at a bend in the road and collided with the southbound fire truck, according to Lysek. The fire truck was headed out to be serviced.

Pennsylvania State Police were dispatched around 7:15 a.m. At least one injury has also been reported, but police have not provided information on the condition of fire truck driver.

Authorities closed Cherryville Road closed between Kohls Road and Locust Drive in neighboring Lehigh Township.

Massive apartment fire in Raleign, NC damages at least 8 units
















RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – Raleigh firefighters battled a fire at an apartment complex Prince George Lane on Friday.

Heavy flames could be seen pouring from units at the complex near the intersection of Strickland and Six Forks roads.

The fire started some time around noon.

At least eight units were damaged by fire with at least four damaged by primarily smoke and water, according to Raleigh Fire.

The cause of the fire is still unknown.

The Red Cross is assisting those displaced.

A female employee seriously injured after she became entangled and entrapped in a machine while working at Schick Manufacturing Inc., inside the Edgewell Personal Care facility in Milford




Employee seriously hurt in Schick factory accident in Milford

By Alex Ceneviva, WTNH.com Staff and Noelle Gardner Published: May 25, 2017, 10:15 am Updated: May 25, 2017, 6:29 pm


MILFORD, Conn. (WTNH)– A woman is in serious condition after an accident at the Schick factory in Milford on Thursday morning.

The Milford Fire Department’s Chief Battalion tells News 8 that they received a 911 call at around 9:23 a.m. after a female employee became entangled and entrapped in a machine while working at Schick Manufacturing Inc., inside the Edgewell Personal Care facility at 10 Leighton Road. The factory quickly turned off the power to the manufacturing machine and worked to dissemble it while firefighters responded.

Fire officials say extrication and advanced life support was needed as the woman’s right hand became trapped in the device. They added that a tourniquet was also applied as there was extreme bleeding.

A production manager says that incident happened around 9:15 a.m. and that it was security who called 911. The Chief Battalion says it took approximately 17 minutes to disentangle the woman and she was taken to the Yale-New Haven Hospital at around 9:46 a.m.

The woman has not been identified at this time and remains in serious condition. Fire officials say she was conscious and alert during the incident but obviously in distress.


The manufacturing area has been shut down and the company is working to get counselors for the employees who witnessed the accident. The incident remains under investigation and OSHA will also respond for their own investigation.



====================


Milford Firefighters Worked For 17 Minutes To Free Trapped Schick Employee From Machine: UPDATE 


The woman, who is an employee, was rushed to the hospital after her arm got caught in a machine. Several workers rushed to her aid.

By Brian McCready (Patch National Staff) - May 25, 2017 1:41 pm ET


MILFORD, CT — A female Shick Manufacturing Inc. employee was seriously injured Thursday morning after her right hand became entrapped in machinery at the 10 Leighton Road facility in Milford, said Battalion Chief Anthony Fabrizi.

Fire dispatch received the 911 call at 9:23 a.m. reporting the incident. Firefighters quickly arrived on scene and found the employee's right hand entangled in the manufacturing equipment, Fabrizi said. Milford Fire Paramedics applied a tourniquet to control the bleeding while also providing an advanced level of patient care.

"Firefighters worked diligently for 17 minutes and managed to free the employees hand from the machine," Fabrizi said.

The patient was then transported to Yale New Haven Trauma Center by Milford Fire Medic 1. Her condition is currently unknown at press time.

Schick officials are working with an OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) representative to investigate the incident, Fabrizi said.

Original story:

MILFORD, CT — A woman suffered serious injuries at the Schick Manufacturing Inc. factory in Milford Thursday morning after she became "entangled and entrapped" in a machine while working, WTNH News 8 reports.

Fire officials are on scene and say a tourniquet was applied and there was severe bleeding. The victim was taken to an area hospital. The facility is located at 10 Leighton Road.

The accident occurred at 9:15 a.m. Thursday, according to NBC Connecticut. The victim is in serious condition after her hand got caught in a machine at Schick, NBC adds. Several employees rushed to the woman's aid.

The cause of the accident is under investigation. NBC Connecticut says the victim was "conscious and alert" at the scene.



==============


Woman hurt at Milford Schick factory after getting tangled in machine
Officials respond to an accident at Schick in Milford on Thursday. Jessica Lerner — New Haven Register


By Jessica Lerner, jlerner@newhavenregister.com, @jesslerner on Twitter


Posted: 05/25/17
Officials respond to an accident at Schick in Milford on Thursday. Jessica Lerner — New Haven Register

MILFORD, CT-   A female employee of Schick Manufacturing. suffered serious injuries Thursday after her right hand became entangled in a piece of machinery, officials said.

The accident happened at approximately 9:15 a.m. while the employee was doing “standard manufacturing work,” said Jeff Wilson, a product manager.

Emergency crews from Milford and Stratford were dispatched to the Edgewell Personal Care facility at 10 Leighton Road after receiving a 911 call, Battalion Chief Anthony Fabrizi said.


Schick employees attempted to stabilize the incident by turning the power off and began disassembling the machine to help disentangle the employee. Wilson said their first priority was their colleague’s safety.


Paramedics performed advanced lifesaving support to the employee, and a tourniquet was applied to attempt to control the heavy bleeding, Fabrizi said.

Firefighters then began the extrication process of disentangling the employee’s hand from the machine, which took about 17 minutes from their arrival on the scene.

Fabrizi said there is a very small window for this type of extrication, and they always attempt to get the patient to a trauma center within an hour.

The woman was conscious and alert but obviously distressed during the extrication, officials said. She was taken to Yale New Haven Hospital for treatment, Fabrizi said. The severity of her injuries are unknown at this time.

“Right now, we’re very early in the investigation and we’re not sure what particularly happened. We were more concerned with the patient’s wellbeing,” Fabrizi said. The area where the accident occurred has been shut down and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration said it has a compliance officer on the scene investigating the accident.

Fabrizi described this as “standard,” explaining that any type of industrial accident leads to an OSHA investigation.

NOAA's 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal or near-normal hurricane season is most likely.




NOAA 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued: 25 May 2017

Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

 
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season outlook
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location.

Preparedness
Hurricane disasters can occur whether the season is active or relatively quiet. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. Residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. NOAA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Nature of this Outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

This outlook is based on 1) predictions of large-scale climate factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity.

Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:
  1. The possible changing phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
  2. Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
  3. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
  4. Model predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
  5. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
a. Predicted Activity
NOAA's 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal or near-normal hurricane season is most likely. The outlook indicates a 45% chance for an above-normal season, a 35% chance for a near-normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2017 hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th:
  • 11-17 Named Storms, which includes Tropical Storm Arlene in April
  • 5-9 Hurricanes
  • 2-4 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 75%-155% of the median, which includes Arlene in April
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered near or above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.
b. Reasoning behind the outlook
NOAA's 2017 Atlantic hurricane season outlook reflects three main factors during August-October:
  • (1) Either ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions are expected over the tropical Pacific Ocean [ENSO refers to El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.],
  • (2) Near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, which includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude), and
  • (3) Near-average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in the MDR.
There is currently large model forecast uncertainty regarding both oceanic and atmospheric predictions for August-October 2017. This uncertainty is reflected in the forecasts for ENSO, and for forecasts of SSTs and vertical wind shear in the MDR. The combination of ENSO-neutral, a warmer MDR, and weaker vertical wind shear within the MDR would likely yield levels of activity near the higher ends of the predicted ranges. The combination of El Niño, a cooler MDR, and near- or above-average vertical wind shear in the MDR, would likely yield levels of activity toward the lower ends of the predicted ranges.
Preparedness for Tropical Storm and Hurricane Landfalls:
It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.
DISCUSSION
1. Expected 2017 activity
NOAA's 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal or near-normal hurricane season is most likely. The outlook indicates a 45% chance for an above-normal season, a 35% chance for a near-normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. This outlook indicates a 75% chance that the 2017 seasonal ACE range will be 75%-155% of the median. According to NOAA's hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 71.4% and 120% of the 1981-2010 median reflects a near-normal season. Values above this range reflect an above-normal season and values below this range reflect a below-normal season.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 11-17 named storms (which includes TS Arlene in April), of which 5-9 are expected to become hurricanes, and 2-4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered near or above the 1981-2010 period averages of about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Predicting the location, number, timing, and strength of hurricanes landfalls is ultimately related to the daily weather patterns including genesis locations and steering patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook.
2. Science behind the 2017 Outlook
NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season outlooks are based on predictions of the main climate factors and their associated conditions known to influence seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, and research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) models FLOR-FA and HI-FLOR, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea5 model, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model. ENSO forecasts are also provided from a suite of statistical and other dynamical models contained in the suite of Niño 3.4 SST forecasts, which is compiled by the IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA's 2017 Atlantic hurricane season outlook reflects three main factors during August-October: (1) Either ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions most likely over the tropical Pacific Ocean, (2) Near- or above-average SSTs across much of the Atlantic hurricane MDR, (3) Near-average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in the MDR, and (4) Near-average sea level pressures in the MDR.
a. ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño
La Niña dissipated in February, and ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since that time. Recently, above-average SSTs have emerged in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and near-average SSTs are evident in the central equatorial Pacific. The SST index for the Niño 3.4 region, which spans the east-central equatorial Pacific between 120°W-170°W, is currently near +0.5°C. ENSO-neutral conditions have Niño 3.4 index values between -0.5°C and +0.5°C. El Niño is classified as a sustained Niño 3.4 index value at or above +0.5°C for 5-consecutive months, along with consistent atmospheric impacts. A weak El Niño is defined by a Niño 3.4 index between +0.5° and +1.0°C, and a moderate-strength El Niño is defined by a Niño 3.4 index between +1° and +1.5°C.
El Niño causes increased vertical wind shear in the MDR, along with anomalous sinking motion, and increased atmospheric stability. These conditions are not conducive to hurricane formation and intensification. Conversely, La Niña causes decreased vertical wind shear in the MDR, along with anomalous rising motion and decreased atmospheric stability. These conditions are conducive to a more active Atlantic hurricane season.
Sub-surface ocean temperatures are warmer than average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and near average across the east-central equatorial Pacific. This pattern indicates that the anomalous warmth in the Niño 3.4 region is currently confined to the near-surface, a condition that does not favor a significant short-term evolution toward El Niño.
A time longitude diagram of the equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content anomalies (i.e. average temperature anomalies in the upper 300 m of the ocean) highlights the recent sub-surface temperature evolution and also shows mixed conditions across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Following the disappearance of negative heat content anomalies in February, positive anomalies developed in both the central and eastern Pacific. However, the anomalies across the east-central equatorial Pacific have been weak, fluctuating between negative and positive values. Also, the positive anomalies in the eastern Pacific have recently decreased in strength. This variability is linked to a series of equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves, whose downwelling phase (dashed line) produces warming and whose upwelling phase (dotted line) produces cooling. Such intra-seasonal variability can cause large fluctuations in model predictions from one month to the next, and is also making it difficult to predict confidently whether El Niño will develop in time and of sufficient strength to suppress the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.
Large uncertainties for predictions of El Niño and La Niña are typical at this time of the year, because this is when the model forecast skill is at its lowest. Currently, there is considerable model spread in the SST predictions for the Niño 3.4 region during ASO 2017, generally ranging from ENSO-neutral to a weak El Niño. The average of the dynamical model predictions (thick orange line) indicates a weak El Niño during ASO, perhaps with sufficient strength to have a suppressing influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. The average of the statistical model predictions (thick green line) indicates borderline neutral to weak El Niño conditions during ASO 2017.
There is even considerable spread in the SST forecasts coming from different resolutions of the same model. For example the CFS high-resolution (T-382) model is predicting below-average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region during ASO, while the lower-resolution CFS T-126 model is predicting a weak El Niño but with no suggestion that El Niño will be strong enough to increase the vertical wind shear in the MDR.
Based on current conditions, the recent oceanic evolution, and the large spread in model forecasts, the latest ENSO outlook issued by the CPC and IRI indicates approximately equal probabilities of ENSO-neutral and El Niño throughout the hurricane season. That outlook also states that "while the Niño-3.4 index may be near or greater than +0.5°C for several months, the warmth may not last long enough to qualify as an El Niño episode and/or may not impact the atmospheric circulation."
b. Near-average or above-average sea surface temperatures in the MDR
Currently, SSTs are above average across the MDR, with the largest departures of between +0.5° and +1°C observed in the Caribbean Sea. For the ASO season, SSTs have been above average in the MDR since 1995. However, there is typically low skill and considerable spread in model predictions of Atlantic SSTs this far ahead of the ASO season. Complicating this situation is the possible continuance of a strong cold bias in forecasts from NOAA's CFS high-resolution model that was evident during past two hurricane seasons. This model is again predicting well below-average SSTs in the MDR, while the lower-resolution CFS runs are predicting overall above-average SSTs in that region.
Uncertainty in the state of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is another factor complicating the prediction of SST anomalies within the MDR, and their impacts on the Atlantic hurricane season. The AMO is a main climate factor that influences the Atlantic hurricane season, and it sets the backdrop upon which other climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña overlay. The AMO results in Atlantic hurricane seasons historically exhibiting 25-40 year periods of generally above-normal activity (called a high-activity era) followed by 25-40 years of generally below-normal activity (called a low-activity era).
At present, there is uncertainty as to whether or not the warm (i.e. positive) phase of the AMO, which has been associated with the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995, has ended. There is also uncertainty as to whether a cool (i.e., negative) phase of the AMO and low-activity era has begun similar to that observed during 1971-1994. Two different measures of the strength and phase of the AMO are the Kaplan AMO index and the Klotzbach-Gray AMO index. For Jun.-Nov. (Red line), which is the Atlantic hurricane season, both indices have generally shown strong positive values in association with the recent high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes. However, in recent years, the Kaplan AMO index has remained positive, while the Klotzbach-Gray index has fluctuated near zero. Similar results apply to the ASO season (Green line). SSTs in the Atlantic MDR have remained well above average since 1995, which is consistent with the warm AMO during that season. The 2017 outlook reflects the likelihood of either the neutral or warm phase of the AMO during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.
Conversely, for the cool season January-May (Blue line), both indices have been much cooler during the past few years compared to their Jun.-Nov. and ASO counterparts. Also, the Kaplan AMO index has remained generally positive during the Jan.-May season, whereas the Klotzbach-Gray index has recently turned strongly negative. Thus, the AMO index in the months prior to the Atlantic hurricane season has recently been a poor indicator of the upcoming AMO index during the hurricane season.
c. Near-average or below-average vertical wind shear in the MDR
The strength and spatial distribution of the vertical wind shear is critical for predicting the strength of the hurricane season. Weaker vertical wind shear is conducive to stronger and longer-lasting hurricanes, while strong shear can either prevent a storm from forming or significantly weaken an existing storm. An El Niño of sufficient strength acts to increase the vertical wind shear within the MDR, thereby suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season.
At present, the model forecasts of vertical wind shear vary considerably from one model to the next, are generally dependent upon the model's predicted strength of El Niño. The CFS model is predicting anomalously weak shear in the MDR during ASO 2017. At present, there is no indication that the shear will be excessively weak so as to support an extremely active hurricane season, and also no confident indication that the shear will be exceptionally strong. The MDR will most likely experience near-average or below-average vertical wind shear during ASO 2017.
d. Near-average sea level pressures in the MDR
Relatively small changes in sea level pressures within the MDR can also affect the Atlantic hurricane activity. Higher pressures on the order of 0.5-1.0 mb above average are associated with more sinking and drying of the tropical atmosphere, which is not conducive for hurricane activity. The opposite is true for lower pressures than usual. Currently, pressures across the MDR are near average and forecasts from the various global models do not indicate large anomalies for either higher or lower pressure during ASO 2017.
NOAA FORECASTERS:
Climate Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Research Division
REFERENCES
  • Bell, G. D., and M. Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multi-decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate. 19, 590-612.

  • Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474-479.

  • Goldenberg, S. B. and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and west African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activityJ. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.

  • Klotzbach, P.J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multi-decadal Variability in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935.

  • Landsea, C. W., G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, 2010: Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. J. Climate, 23, 2508-2519.

 

Forecasters predict above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

Updated: 1:14 PM EDT May 25, 2017

Forecasters say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season in 2017.
Advertisement
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said that for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, there is a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Forecasters predicted 11-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four hurricanes could be "major" with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
An average season produces 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson says high-resolution hurricane model upgrades should provide "much improved" forecast guidance this year.
Friedman says a new weather satellite will help forecasters see developing storms in greater detail.

A Perris Valley Aviation DHC-6 Twin Otter 300 that was operating skydiving flights out of Perris Valley Airport, California, USA crashed upon returning to the airport. The aircraft encountered a dust devil on landing and hit a gas truck.






























UPDATED: PERRIS: Plane smashes into fuel tanker in Perris Valley Airport crash

By Trevor Montgomery on May 24, 20172 Comments


UPDATE: Wednesday, May 24, 10:50 p.m.
The twin-engine turbo-prop was heavily damaged after the accident. Hayes photo

PERRIS — Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Cpt. and Public Information Officer Lucas Felman provided additional information about a plane crash that happened earlier today, May 24. The crash happened at the Perris Valley Airport on the 2000 block of Goetz Road in Perris.

“As the plane was landing it came in contact with a fuel truck,” Felman explained from the scene. “As it did, it ripped off half of the wing and then spun itself around.”

After smashing into the fuel tanker and spinning, the plane came to rest a mere 100 yards from a large building. “If it (had gone) any further it would have collided into that building, potentially injuring many people,” said Felman.

Although the fuel tanker was damaged, no fuel was spilled from it or the airplane, according to the fire captain, who said FAA investigators had already arrived at the scene and assumed the investigation into the cause of the minor-injury accident.

A damaged fuel tanker can be seen in the background, with tire skid marks from where the plane spun around before coming to rest. William Hayes photo

ORIGINAL STORY: BREAKING: PERRIS: Two walk away after plane crash at Perris Valley Airport
Most of the plane’s right wing was torn off in the crash. Pete Torres photo

PERRIS — One person was slightly injured and another walked away unharmed after a plane crashed this afternoon at the Perris Valley Airport. The crash, that ripped one wing completely off the heavily damaged plane, happened Wednesday, May 24. The regional airport is located on the 2000 block of Goetz Road in Perris.

The small, privately owned and operated airport is open to public use and is best known for Skydive Perris, which operates out of the location. The company has a grass parachute landing zone about 50 feet from the airport’s single runway.

Cal Fire/Riverside County firefighters and Riverside County sheriff’s deputies were dispatched to the airport at 3:55 p.m., after Riverside County emergency dispatchers received reports of an aircraft down at the location.

Twelve firefighters from two engine companies responded to the air emergency, Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Public Information Officer Tawny Cabral said in an incident report. They were assisted by the Riverside County Fire Department’s Hazardous Materials Team and Hazardous Materials Support Unit as well as the Riverside County Environmental Health Department.
One of two occupants from the plane sustained minor injuries. Pete Torres photo

“The first arriving engine company advised one passenger aircraft was down,” said Cabral. Two occupants were in the plane when it crashed and had already exited the plane by the time officials began arriving.

Firefighter/paramedics evaluated and treated one injured victim at the scene, whose injuries were described as minor. Both occupants from the plane declined further medical treatment.

After the crash, the heavily damaged plane could be seen sitting on the runway, with law enforcement, fire and other officials surveying the wreckage.

The plane, a 1976 de Havilland “Twin Otter” DHC-6 was missing most of its right wing and had sustained other substantial damage; including to the landing gear, nose, tail section and left wing.

FAA records indicate the twin-engine, turbo-prop is owned by PM Leasing Inc., which shares an address with Skydive Perris. It was not immediately known who the plane was leased to; however, Skydive Perris was clearly marked on the plane’s fuselage.

FAA and NTSB officials are reportedly headed to the scene of the crash to conduct an investigation into the cause.

The last plane known to have crashed at the airport happened during the 40th anniversary celebration of Skydive Perris Saturday Sept. 3.

In that incident, a Vintage WWII warplane ended up nose down in the dirt after suffering what officials at the time called a “hard landing.” The pilot in that crash walked away uninjured.







Status: Preliminary
Date: Wednesday 24 May 2017
Time: 22:51 UTC
Type:
de Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter 300
Operator: Perris Valley Aviation
Registration: N708PV
C/n / msn: 489
First flight: 1976-04-27 (41 years 1 months)
Crew: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2
Passengers: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 0
Total: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2
Airplane damage: Substantial
Airplane fate: Written off (damaged beyond repair)
Location: Perris Valley Airport, CA ( United States of America)
Phase: Landing (LDG)
Nature: Parachuting
Departure airport: Perris Valley Airport, CA, United States of America
Destination airport: Perris Valley Airport, CA, United States of America


Narrative:
The DHC-6 Twin Otter 300 was operating skydiving flights out of Perris Valley Airport, California, USA. Upon returning to the airport, the aircraft was involved in an accident.
Precise circumstances are unclear. Local news sources suggest the aircraft encountered a dust devil on landing and hit a gas truck.
Photos from the scene show that the right hand wing had separated just outboard of the no.1 engine, the nose landing gear was sheared off and the nose section was heavily damaged.


Source: http://myvalleynews.com/local/updated-perris-plane-smashes-into-fuel-tanker-in-perris-valley-airport-crash/