Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Drier weather is forecast to move into the Midwest later this week, which may allow fields to dry down or, in some cases, allow farmers to harvest crops.

3 Big Things Today, September 26

Corn, Beans Lower Overnight; Money Managers Bet Against Corn For Soybean Prices.
Tony Dreibus

Bill Spiegel
1. Corn, Soybeans Lower Overnight as Drier Weather Forecast For Midwest

Corn and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading as drier weather is forecast to move into the Midwest later this week, which may allow fields to dry down or, in some cases, allow farmers to harvest crops.

Despite abundant rains in much of the northwestern Midwest over the weekend, the region may dry out later this week, said Donald Keeney, a senior agricultural meteorologist at MDA Information Services in Bethesda, Maryland.

Still, the six- to 10-day outlook is calling for more rain in northwestern and eastern parts of the Midwest, Keeney said in a report on Monday morning.

Corn futures for December delivery declined 2¾¢ to $3.33¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybeans for November delivery fell 1¾¢ to $9.53¼ a bushel overnight. Soy meal futures for December delivery lost 90¢ to $301.90 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.12¢ to 33.68¢ a pound.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell ¾¢ to $4.04 a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures lost 1½¢ to $4.20 a bushel.

2. Speculators Raise Bets Against Higher Corn Prices Despite Flooded Fields

Speculative investors raised their net-short positions, or bets that prices will fall, in corn futures last week despite excessive rainfall that’s threatening crops while simultaneously betting on higher soybeans.

As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in the past month in much of the Midwest, according to the National Weather Service. Rain has caused flooding in some fields and fungal diseases in others, threatening yields.

Still, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has called for record yields and production for both corn and soybeans.

The USDA earlier this month pegged production at a record 15.1 billion bushels on yields of 174.4 bushels an acre. Soybean output was projected at 4.2 billion bushels, also the highest ever, on yields of 50.6 bushels an acre, the government said.

Speculators were net-short 156,033 corn futures contracts in the week that ended on September 20, up from 151,547 the prior week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a report on Friday.

Money managers were net-long 86,782 soybean futures, up from 72,886 contracts seven days earlier, the CFTC said, the biggest bet on higher prices since September 2.


3. Large Storm System Brings Rain to Midwest, Southern Plains

A strong weather system stretching from southern Canada well into northern Mexico will cause flooding in some parts of the Southern Plains and Midwest today, according to the National Weather Service.

The storm stretches along the Interstate 35 and Interstate 29 corridors and will affect Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota, NWS weather maps show. Flash flood watches are expected in Texas, and flood warnings are in effect in some counties in southern Minnesota, parts of Iowa, and northwestern Missouri.

“Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the late morning and early afternoon hours mainly across central portions of Texas near San Antonio and New Braunfels,” the NWS said in a report on Monday morning. “This could lead to an isolated flash flood threat.”