THE PEAK “TORNADO SEASON” FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DURING MAY INTO EARLY JUNE: TORNADOES IN SOUTHERN PLAINS DESTROY HOMES, FLIP CARS

MAY 7, 2015
 

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK (AP)

Tornadoes raked the southern Plains Wednesday, overturning cars on an Oklahoma City interstate and destroying dozens of homes.

No deaths were immediately reported from the tornadoes that hit Oklahoma and rural parts of Kansas and Nebraska.

The worst damage seemed to be in the Oklahoma City area. A twister destroyed homes at Bridge Creek, Amber and Blanchard, southwest of the city, and it appeared another tornado touched down later Wednesday evening when a second storm came through the area.

"We have damage reports, so we do strongly think there was a tornado on the south side of Oklahoma City," meteorologist Michael Scotten with the National Weather Service in Norman said after the second storm that hit around 8:40 p.m.

That storm flipped vehicles on Interstate 35 and left power lines strewn across the roadway, Scotten said.

It wasn't immediately clear whether anyone was hurt. The Oklahoma Highway Patrol and an ambulance company spokeswoman both said emergency personnel were sent to the scene, though no injuries were immediately reported.

In Grady County, about 25 miles southwest of Oklahoma City, a zoo was hit by a tornado, prompting concerns that animals could be on the loose. Alisa Voegeli, a dispatcher at the sheriff's office, said the zoo's owner and a deputy were on scene Wednesday night inspecting the damage.

Another threat also loomed: flooding. The storms dumped up to 6 inches in the southern part of Oklahoma City, prompting the city to issue a flash flood emergency for the first time in its history, said city spokeswoman Kristy Yager. Road crews were waiting for the storms to abate to set up barricades and evaluate trouble spots.

"They'll dispatch as soon as the storms end and the weather clears," Yager said.

The Storm Prediction Center had warned that bad weather would come to Tornado Alley, and more storms were possible later in the week, with flooding a major concern.

"People just really need to stay weather aware, have a plan and understand that severe storms are possible across portions of the southern Plains almost daily through Saturday," National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Kurtz said.

In Oklahoma, Grady County Emergency Management Director Dale Thompson said about 10 homes were destroyed in Amber and 25 were destroyed in Bridge Creek. As the storm moved to the east, forecasters declared a tornado emergency for Moore, where seven schoolchildren were among 24 people killed in a storm two years ago. When the first of the storms moved through Wednesday, school districts held their pupils in safe places.

At Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City, people were twice evacuated into a tunnel outside the security zone.

In Nebraska, 10 to 15 homes were damaged near Grand Island, and between Hardy and Ruskin, near the Kansas line.

At least nine tornadoes were reported in Kansas, the strongest of them in the sparsely populated north-central part of the state. That included a large tornado near the tiny town of Republic just south of the Nebraska state line, where some homes were damaged. In Harvey County, a tornado destroyed a hog barn and damaged trees, according to the National Weather Service.

PHOTO of damage in Bridge Creek from @NewsOKPhoto's Steve Sisney http://t.co/3Krfqvi7TT#okwxpic.twitter.com/EZX6fuR1Bg

— NewsOK (@NewsOK) May 6, 2015

Screen capture of #tornado warned cell near Oklahoma City. pic.twitter.com/unwRUdeFud

— Weather Underground (@wunderground) May 6, 2015

LIVE NOW...#tornado on the ground in #Oklahoma in Caddo County, SW of #OklahomaCity. #OKwxpic.twitter.com/TTn8ayZEYV

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) May 6, 2015

We continue tracking a tornado on the ground near Lincon Kansas at: https://t.co/wpuVWFj9Ddpic.twitter.com/RGmZm4fADh

— Iowa Storm Chasing (@IAStormChasing) May 6, 2015

LIVE NOW...#tornado on the ground in #Kansas just S. of Lincoln; debris in the air...tune in for latest! #KSwxpic.twitter.com/6ZOniaSMGp

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) May 6, 2015

Lincoln Co, KS #kswxpic.twitter.com/LJKZg4YSAY

— Matt Unruh (@UnruhMatt) May 6, 2015

Some tree damage in the cemetery on the east side of Lincoln, KS #kswxpic.twitter.com/8oCqUXVD1o

— Matt Unruh (@UnruhMatt) May 6, 2015

Funnel cloud north of Cyril, OK. Just spun back up. #okwxpic.twitter.com/mIncpcRvDz

— Colin Deaver (@ColinDeaver) May 6, 2015

A large area in the central/southern Plains is under a #tornado watch this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/eSNhxJuJ9G

— USA TODAY Weather (@usatodayweather) May 6, 2015

Source: usatoday.com

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Tornado Basics

What is a tornado?

A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. Because wind is invisible, it is hard to see a tornado unless it forms a condensation funnel made up of water droplets, dust and debris. Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms.

Where do tornadoes occur?

Tornadoes occur in many parts of the world, including Australia, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. Even New Zealand reports about 20 tornadoes each year. Two of the highest concentrations of tornadoes outside the U.S. are Argentina and Bangladesh.

How many tornadoes occur in the U.S. each year?

About 1,200 tornadoes hit the U.S. yearly. Since official tornado records only date back to 1950, we do not know the actual average number of tornadoes that occur each year. Plus, tornado spotting and reporting methods have changed a lot over the last several decades.

Where is tornado alley?

Tornado Alley is a nickname invented by the media for a broad area of relatively high tornado occurrence in the central U.S. Various Tornado Alley maps look different because tornado occurrence can be measured many ways: by all tornadoes, tornado county-segments, strong and violent tornadoes only, and databases with different time periods. Please remember, violent or killer tornadoes do happen outside “Tornado Alley” every year.

When are tornadoes most likely?

Tornado season usually refers to the time of year the U.S. sees the most tornadoes. The peak “tornado season” for the Southern Plains is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring. In the northern plains and upper Midwest, tornado season is in June or July. But, remember, tornadoes can happen at any time of year. Tornadoes can also happen at any time of day or night, but most tornadoes occur between 4–9 p.m.

What is the difference between a Tornado WATCH and a Tornado WARNING?

A Tornado WATCH is issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 across the entire U.S. for weather conditions that are favorable for tornadoes. A watch can cover parts of a state or several states. Watch and prepare for severe weather and stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio to know when warnings are issued.

A Tornado WARNING is issued by your local NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 over a designated area. This means a tornado has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar and there is a serious threat to life and property to those in the path of the tornado. ACT now to find safe shelter! A warning can cover parts of counties or several counties in the path of danger.

Watch this Youtube video for a great explanation!

How is tornado strength rated?

The most common and practical way to determine the strength of a tornado is to look at the damage it caused. From the damage, we can estimate the wind speeds. An “Enhanced Fujita Scale” was implemented by the National Weather Service in 2007 to rate tornadoes in a more consistent and accurate manner. The EF-Scale takes into account more variables than the original Fujita Scale (F-Scale) when assigning a wind speed rating to a tornado, incorporating 28 damage indicators such as building type, structures and trees. For each damage indicator, there are 8 degrees of damage ranging from the beginning of visible damage to complete destruction of the damage indicator. The original F-scale did not take these details into account. The original F-Scale historical data base will not change. An F5 tornado rated years ago is still an F5, but the wind speed associated with the tornado may have been somewhat less than previously estimated. A correlation between the original F-Scale and the EF-Scale has been developed. This makes it possible to express ratings in terms of one scale to the other, preserving the historical database.

How do tornadoes form?

The truth is that we don't fully understand. The most destructive and deadly tornadoes occur from supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms with a well-defined radar circulation called a mesocyclone. (Supercells can also produce damaging hail, severe non-tornadic winds, unusually frequent lightning, and flash floods.) Tornado formation is believed to be dictated mainly by things which happen on the storm scale, in and around the mesocyclone. Recent theories and results from the VORTEX2 program suggest that once a mesocyclone is underway, tornado development is related to the temperature differences across the edge of downdraft air wrapping around the mesocyclone. Mathematical modeling studies of tornado formation also indicate that it can happen without such temperature patterns; and in fact, very little temperature variation was observed near some of the most destructive tornadoes in history on 3 May 1999. We still have lots of work to do.

What do storm spotters look for when trying to identify a tornado or a dangerous storm?

Inflow bands are ragged bands of low cumulus clouds extending from the main storm tower usually to the southeast or south. The presence of inflow bands suggests that the storm is gathering low-level air from several miles away. If the inflow bands have a spiraling nature to them, it suggests the presence of rotation.

The beaver's tail is a smooth, flat cloud band extending from the eastern edge of the rain-free base to the east or northeast. It usually skirts around the southern edge of the precipitation area. It also suggests the presence of rotation.

A wall cloud is an isolated cloud lowering attached to the rain-free base of the thunderstorm. The wall cloud is usually to the rear of the visible precipitation area.

A wall cloud that may produce a tornado usually exists for 10–20 minutes before a tornado appears. A wall cloud may also persistently rotate (often visibly), have strong surface winds flowing into it, and may have rapid vertical motion indicated by small cloud elements quickly rising into the rain-free base.

As the storm intensifies, the updraft draws in low-level air from several miles around. Some low-level air is pulled into the updraft from the rain area. This rain-cooled air is very humid; the moisture in the rain-cooled air quickly condenses below the rain-free base to form the wall cloud.

The rear flank downdraft (RFD) is a downward rush of air on the back side of the storm that descends along with the tornado. The RFD looks like a “clear slot” or “bright slot” just to the rear (southwest) of the wall cloud. It can also look like curtains of rain wrapping around the cloud base circulation. The RFD causes gusty surface winds that occasionally have embedded downbursts. The rear flank downdraft is the motion in the storm that causes the hook echo feature on radar.

A condensation funnel is made up of water droplets and extends downward from the base of the thunderstorm. If it is in contact with the ground it is a tornado; otherwise it is a funnel cloud. Dust and debris beneath the condensation funnel confirm a tornado's presence.

Source: www.nssl.noaa.gov

Tornado Basics

What is a tornado?

A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. Because wind is invisible, it is hard to see a tornado unless it forms a condensation funnel made up of water droplets, dust and debris. Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms.

Where do tornadoes occur?

Tornadoes occur in many parts of the world, including Australia, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. Even New Zealand reports about 20 tornadoes each year. Two of the highest concentrations of tornadoes outside the U.S. are Argentina and Bangladesh. 

How many tornadoes occur in the U.S. each year?

About 1,200 tornadoes hit the U.S. yearly. Since official tornado records only date back to 1950, we do not know the actual average number of tornadoes that occur each year. Plus, tornado spotting and reporting methods have changed a lot over the last several decades.

Where is tornado alley?

Tornado Alley is a nickname invented by the media for a broad area of relatively high tornado occurrence in the central U.S. Various Tornado Alley maps look different because tornado occurrence can be measured many ways: by all tornadoes, tornado county-segments, strong and violent tornadoes only, and databases with different time periods. Please remember, violent or killer tornadoes do happen outside “Tornado Alley” every year. 

When are tornadoes most likely?

Tornado season usually refers to the time of year the U.S. sees the most tornadoes. The peak “tornado season” for the Southern Plains is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring. In the northern plains and upper Midwest, tornado season is in June or July. But, remember, tornadoes can happen at any time of year. Tornadoes can also happen at any time of day or night, but most tornadoes occur between 4–9 p.m.

What is the difference between a Tornado WATCH and a Tornado WARNING?

A Tornado WATCH is issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 across the entire U.S. for weather conditions that are favorable for tornadoes. A watch can cover parts of a state or several states. Watch and prepare for severe weather and stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio to know when warnings are issued.

A Tornado WARNING is issued by your local NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 over a designated area. This means a tornado has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar and there is a serious threat to life and property to those in the path of the tornado. ACT now to find safe shelter! A warning can cover parts of counties or several counties in the path of danger.

Watch this Youtube video for a great explanation!

How is tornado strength rated?

The most common and practical way to determine the strength of a tornado is to look at the damage it caused. From the damage, we can estimate the wind speeds. An “Enhanced Fujita Scale” was implemented by the National Weather Service in 2007 to rate tornadoes in a more consistent and accurate manner. The EF-Scale takes into account more variables than the original Fujita Scale (F-Scale) when assigning a wind speed rating to a tornado, incorporating 28 damage indicators such as building type, structures and trees. For each damage indicator, there are 8 degrees of damage ranging from the beginning of visible damage to complete destruction of the damage indicator. The original F-scale did not take these details into account. The original F-Scale historical data base will not change. An F5 tornado rated years ago is still an F5, but the wind speed associated with the tornado may have been somewhat less than previously estimated. A correlation between the original F-Scale and the EF-Scale has been developed. This makes it possible to express ratings in terms of one scale to the other, preserving the historical database.

How do tornadoes form?

The truth is that we don't fully understand. The most destructive and deadly tornadoes occur from supercells, which are rotating thunderstorms with a well-defined radar circulation called a mesocyclone. (Supercells can also produce damaging hail, severe non-tornadic winds, unusually frequent lightning, and flash floods.) Tornado formation is believed to be dictated mainly by things which happen on the storm scale, in and around the mesocyclone. Recent theories and results from the VORTEX2 program suggest that once a mesocyclone is underway, tornado development is related to the temperature differences across the edge of downdraft air wrapping around the mesocyclone. Mathematical modeling studies of tornado formation also indicate that it can happen without such temperature patterns; and in fact, very little temperature variation was observed near some of the most destructive tornadoes in history on 3 May 1999. We still have lots of work to do.

What do storm spotters look for when trying to identify a tornado or a dangerous storm?

Inflow bands are ragged bands of low cumulus clouds extending from the main storm tower usually to the southeast or south. The presence of inflow bands suggests that the storm is gathering low-level air from several miles away. If the inflow bands have a spiraling nature to them, it suggests the presence of rotation.

The beaver's tail is a smooth, flat cloud band extending from the eastern edge of the rain-free base to the east or northeast. It usually skirts around the southern edge of the precipitation area. It also suggests the presence of rotation.

A wall cloud is an isolated cloud lowering attached to the rain-free base of the thunderstorm. The wall cloud is usually to the rear of the visible precipitation area.

A wall cloud that may produce a tornado usually exists for 10–20 minutes before a tornado appears. A wall cloud may also persistently rotate (often visibly), have strong surface winds flowing into it, and may have rapid vertical motion indicated by small cloud elements quickly rising into the rain-free base.

As the storm intensifies, the updraft draws in low-level air from several miles around. Some low-level air is pulled into the updraft from the rain area. This rain-cooled air is very humid; the moisture in the rain-cooled air quickly condenses below the rain-free base to form the wall cloud.

The rear flank downdraft (RFD) is a downward rush of air on the back side of the storm that descends along with the tornado. The RFD looks like a “clear slot” or “bright slot” just to the rear (southwest) of the wall cloud. It can also look like curtains of rain wrapping around the cloud base circulation. The RFD causes gusty surface winds that occasionally have embedded downbursts. The rear flank downdraft is the motion in the storm that causes the hook echo feature on radar.

A condensation funnel is made up of water droplets and extends downward from the base of the thunderstorm. If it is in contact with the ground it is a tornado; otherwise it is a funnel cloud. Dust and debris beneath the condensation funnel confirm a tornado's presence.

Source: www.nssl.noaa.gov

Oil Analysts (aka, clueless clowns) Practice Cautious Capitulation as Crude Surprises

Published in Oil Industry News on Wednesday, 6 May 2015

As oil prices climbed above $68 Tuesday for the first time since December, analysts at some of the world’s biggest banks were holding onto views that this would be a bad year for crude -- just not as terrible as they originally predicted.
Rather then extending last year’s losses, Brent, the global benchmark, has rallied about 50 percent from a six-year low in January as demand accelerated and the rapid growth in supplies started to slow.
The rebound is a shock. At the start of 2015, Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. all predicted that oil might collapse to about $30 a barrel. Now, though, they are raising their price estimates while remaining skeptical that crude will gain much above current levels. There are still risks, including U.S. shale oil coming back into the market with the increase in prices, they say.
“We’re past the lows for the oil market,” Sabine Schels, an analyst at Bank of America in London, said by phone. “The balances are tightening. This is most visible in the U.S., where the surplus has eased significantly. Supply is still greater than demand, but less than it used to be.”
Boosting Estimates
Bank of America raised its 2015 Brent crude forecast to $58 in a report on April 24, from $52 previously. The bank said in a report dated Jan. 15 that Brent would “spiral down” to $31, and West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S marker, to $32, by the end of the first quarter. Brent rose as high as $115.71 last June.
Barclays raised its 2015 forecast for average Brent prices to $60 in a report on April 28, up from $51 in February and $44 in January, citing surprisingly strong Chinese demand growth of 700,000 barrels a day in the first quarter. Concern that the conflict in Yemen will curb Middle East supplies, and output disruptions from Norway to Mexico added to the revision.
“The range seems to have shifted with the price discovery process,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays in London, said by phone. “It seems like a comfortable level now. What’s changed is how quickly demand has adjusted higher. The first-quarter China numbers are a great example.”
U.S. drillers cut the number of oil rigs in operation by 55 percent since the start of the year, according to Houston-based field-services company Baker Hughes Inc. Rigs targeting U.S. oil slid by 24 to 679, the lowest level since September 2010, Baker Hughes said on May 1. The nation’s output from tight-rock formations will decline in May, according to the Energy Information Administration.
More Aggressive
“U.S. producers have responded more aggressively than we had expected,” Goldman Sachs analysts including New York-based Damien Courvalin said in an April 6 report. This gives “modest upside” to their three-month price target for WTI of $40, according to the report. The bank wasn’t able to make analysts available to interview for this article.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., which predicted that Brent could fall to $38 in March, raised its forecasts for the year to $62 on April 30.
“It’s a tighter market than we were expecting and I think demand is the culprit,” David Martin, JPMorgan’s London-based head of global oil strategy, said by phone on May 1. “Our view back in January was the build in stocks was really going to weigh on the crude market and depress the front end of the crude curve. We’ve seen upside surprises in demand, which have allowed refiners to run harder and absorb that crude.”
More Demand
Refiners globally processed an extra 1 million barrels a day last quarter compared with a year earlier. The bear market in Brent crude ended without the most pessimistic estimates being realized. Futures have risen from a six-year low of $45.19 on Jan. 13 and were at $68.95 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:39 a.m. local time.
Citigroup’s Ed Morse predicted in a report dated Feb. 9 that prices would “bottom” by the start of the second quarter, with WTI falling toward $20. Goldman Sachs said in a report dated Jan. 11 that Brent would trade at about $42 in early April. Goldman president Gary Cohn told CNBC on Jan. 26 that prices could fall to $30.
Still, analysts maintain the view prices will struggle to advance significantly in the second half.
U.S. shale supplies will prove more resilient than anticipated, as drilling resumes with rebounding prices, and demand in emerging economies will struggle to climb further as fuel subsidies are removed, Bank of America and Barclays predict. WTI may suffer a “double-dip” to $50 in the third quarter, Bank of America says.
“Growth in emerging markets is still fairly uncertain -- higher oil prices would risk the recovery we’re seeing there,” said Barclays’s Mahesh, who forecasts Brent will average $61 and $66 in the third and fourth quarters respectively. “I wouldn’t say the worst is completely in the rear-view mirror.”
Source: www.bloomberg.com

DHC Contracting knowingly put workers at risk of trench collapse hazards at Guyton, Georgia work site

May 6, 2015

Employer name: James Marlowe, doing business as DHC Contracting, Statesboro, Georgia 

Inspection site: At the time of the inspection, workers were installing a replacement manhole at the South Effingham Waste Water Effluent Pump Station on Hodgeville Road, Guyton, Georgia 31312

Date inspection initiated: The Occupational Safety and Health Administration initiated the Oct. 29, 2014, inspection as part of the agency's National Emphasis Program on Trenching and Excavation. OSHA inspectors were driving by the excavation when they observed an unprotected trench that could collapse and trap the workers. 

Inspection findings: OSHA issued the employer one willful citation for allowing employees to work in an excavation without cave-in protection. OSHA requires that all trenches and excavation sites 5-feet or deeper be protected against sidewall collapses. Protection may be provided through shoring of trench walls, sloping of the soil at a shallow angle or by using a protective trench box. 

Additionally, three serious citations were issued for failing to provide a safe entrance and exit from the trench, not requiring employees to wear head protection while working in a trench where falling objects could result in injury and allowing employees to use a chop saw to cut concrete without wearing proper eye protection. 

Quote: "James Marlowe was at the work site watching his employees work in an unprotected excavation and recognized the hazardous condition that existed, but didn't take action to protect them from being engulfed and crushed by a wall collapse," said Robert Vazzi, OSHA's area director in Savannah. "For an employer to knowingly disregard the lives of their workers is unconscionable." 

Proposed penalties: $57,900

The citations can be viewed at: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/osha/OSHA20150768fs.pdf*

DHC Contracting has 15 business days from receipt of its citations and proposed penalties to comply, request a conference with OSHA's area director or contest the findings before the independent Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission.

To ask questions, obtain compliance assistance, file a complaint or report workplace hospitalizations, fatalities or situations posing imminent danger to workers, the public should call OSHA's toll-free hotline at 800-321-OSHA (6742) or the agency's Savannah Area Office at 912-652-4393.