A Rochester, New York long-haul truck driver, Illya D. Tsar, 39, who caused a fiery crash on Interstate 84 that killed him and three Mountain Home airmen had a multitude of traffic violations in Oregon, Idaho and other states.

Senior Airman Karlie A. Westall
Mountain Home Air Force Base . 
Westall, an air traffic control journeyman, was a South Dakota native who began her Air Force career in 2015. She started working at Mountain Home in January 2016.

Trucker had 20 violations — including 2 license suspensions — before fiery I-84 crash

By Katy Moeller

kmoeller@idahostatesman.com

September 09, 2018

A New York long-haul truck driver who investigators say caused a fiery crash on Interstate 84 that killed him and three Mountain Home airmen had a multitude of traffic violations in Oregon, Idaho and other states.


One commercial trucking expert who reviewed Illya D. Tsar’s driving record described it as “amongst the worst I have seen.”


“His record should have been a red flag to anybody who was considering the employment of his services, or the continuation of his employment as a truck driver,” said Paul Herbert, a former trucker who runs the Western Motor Carrier Safety Institute in California.

An investigation by the Statesman into Tsar’s driving record revealed more than 20 driving-related violations in four states — most in Oregon and Idaho — and evidence of more violations in other states.

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Tsar was a contracted driver for Krujex Freight Transport Corp., a small trucking company based near Portland. The company’s rate of driver out-of-service violations — which means the violations were a serious, immediate danger to themselves or others on the road — is three times higher than the national average, according to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration records. Krujex did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

One of Tsar’s most recent charges was misdemeanor driving with a suspended license in Boise. He failed to show up in court on that April 2017 charge, and a warrant for his arrest was issued in January this year.



The 42-year-old Ukrainian immigrant, who lived in Rochester, New York, turned himself into the Ada County Jail on the suspended license warrant on May 10, according to jail records. He was released in less than an hour, a sheriff’s official said.



That was a little more than a month before the fatal crash near the Cloverdale Road overpass in Boise.


Deadly crash

At about 11:30 p.m. June 16, Tsar was driving a 2019 Volvo tractor-trailer east on I-84 at about 62 miles per hour when he slammed into the back of a Jeep Wrangler that was stopped in a line of traffic due to a construction bottleneck, according to a preliminary crash report by the National Transportation Safety Board. The posted speed limit in that section of highway is normally 65 mph, but it was reduced to 55 for the work zone.

Senior Airman Carlos “C.J.” Johnson, 23, of Key West, Florida; Senior Airman Lawrence “Pit” Manlapit III, 26, of Bridgeport, Connecticut; and Senior Airman Karlie A. Westall, 21, of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, were all killed.

The Jeep, while still being pushed by the Volvo, then struck the back of a 2003 Volvo truck driven by Roman Zhuk, 35, of Vancouver, Washington. Zhuk’s truck sideswiped a 2006 Ford Fusion driven by Toina M. Jorgensen, 35, of Nampa. Jorgensen and a passenger, Erika L. Medina, 25, of Nampa, were treated at Saint Alphonsus Regional Medical Center.

Jorgensen’s Ford rear-ended a 2014 Ford F-150 pickup driven by Gerald S. Shumway, 69, of Boise, and sideswiped a 2015 Ford Escape driven by Fernando D. Nitu, 33, of Nampa. Debris from Tsar’s truck struck a 2010 Ford Focus driven by Rachel Colburn, 19, of Boise. The crash caused Tsar’s truck to be engulfed in flames. The fire badly damaged the Cloverdale Road overpass, and the Idaho Transportation Department plans to replace it.

The truck driver’s inattention was likely the cause of the crash, Idaho State Police investigators said in their initial report. Toxicology tests showed that he did not have alcohol or drugs in his system at the time; only caffeine was present, Ada County Coroner Dotti Owens told the Statesman.



Some local motorists felt that signage could have been better for the lane closures in the construction zone where the crash occurred. The ISP investigators’ report did not say whether they believe the construction, or how it was controlled, contributed to the crash.



===============================


Update: Final victim identified in fatal Interstate 84 accident


By Nicole Blanchard

nblanchard@idahostatesman.com



June 20, 2018 12:28 PM

Update: The driver of the commercial truck involved in the fatal crash on Interstate 84 on June 17 has been identified as 42-year-old Illya D. Tsar, of Rochester, New York, the Ada County Coroner's Office said Friday. Tsar's official cause of death was thermal and inhalation injuries due to the crash.

Below is our previous reporting.

Four days after a fiery crash on Interstate 84 that killed four people, Mountain Home Air Force Base officials have identified three of the victims as local airmen.

The victims were identified as Senior Airman Carlos V. Johnson, 23, Senior Airman Lawrence P. Manlapit III, 26, and Senior Airman Karlie A. Westall, 21, according to a press release from the airbase.

Johnson worked in the 366th Civil Engineer Squadron, Manlapit in the 391st Fighter Squadron and Westall in the 366th Operations Support Squadron.

"I am devastated by the loss of our Airmen," said Col. Joe Kunkel, 366th Fighter Wing commander, in the release. "The upcoming weeks will be tough on all of us, but I know the Gunfighter family will pull together to support each other as well as the family and friends impacted by this tragic event."

According to an Idaho State Police press release, the crash occurred around 11:30 p.m. Sunday on eastbound I-84 at milepost 47, near the Cloverdale Road overpass. A semi truck and SUV slowed for construction traffic while eastbound on the interstate. A second commercial truck struck the SUV and semi truck from behind. Four other vehicles were also involved.

Tsar was driving the commercial truck that struck the SUV, ISP confirmed. The SUV was carrying the three airmen.

Johnson, originally from Panama, had worked at Mountain Home Air Force Base since February 2015 as an operations management journeyman.



Senior Airman Carlos V. Johnson (right)
Mountain Home Air Force Base

Manlapit was a Bridgeport, Connecticut, native who began his career with the Air Force in 2014. He began working at Mountain Home Air Force Base in January 2015 and served as an avionics systems journeyman.



Senior Airman Lawrence P. Manlapit III, left
Mountain Home Air Force Base

Westall, an air traffic control journeyman, was a South Dakota native who began her Air Force career in 2015. She started working at Mountain Home in January 2016.

Two people (pilot and student) died after a Cessna 335 small plane owned/operated by Nova Aviation LLC crashed and burned into a field at John Prince Park in Palm Beach County, Florida

NTSB is investigating today’s accident in Lake Worth, FL involving a Cessna 335.


Two killed in Lake Worth plane crash that originated from Key West 

Jillian Idle, T.A. Walker
September 9, 2018


The Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office says a twin-engine plane crashed in Lake Worth with two fatalities.

The accident happened east of Congress Avenue just south of Palm Beach State College off 6th Avenue in John Prince Park.


The plane was on fire when Palm Beach County Rescue arrived, and the agency worked to put out the flames.


Deputies and Fire Rescue personnel have secured the scene which will be turned over for FAA and NTSB investigators who will look into the accident further. Those investigators are coming from the Miami/Homestead area.

The names of the victims have not been released.

The National Transportation and Safety Board said the plane was a Cessna, and the FAA said the flight originated from Key West.



Narrative:
The 1979 Cessna 335 crashed and burst into flames.

Sources:
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/video-shows-plane-fire-john-prince-park/ApgHExVnNDfLb3icohFfxH/
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N2707J/history/20180909/1336Z/tracklog
Date: 09-SEP-2018
Time: 10:37 LT
Type: Cessna 335
Owner/operator: Nova Aviation
Registration: N2707J
C/n / msn: 335-0023
Fatalities: Fatalities: 2 / Occupants: 2
Aircraft damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair)
Location: John Prince Park Lake Worth, FL - United States of America
Phase:

Nature:

Departure airport: Key West International Airport (EYW/KEYW)
Destination airport: Palm Beach/Lantana Airport, FL (LNA/KLNA)
=======================================
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Our business was conceived with an emphasis on professionalism and structure which is apparent throughout our daily operations. Safety is the foundational platform for all activities and services at NOVA Aviation. We hold ourselves and our clients to standards well above the industry's minimum requirements. We are uncompromising in our efforts to maintain a safe and effective environment in which our pilots and aircraft owners can progress.

Value delivery is at the heart of our business. We are unrelenting in our aspiration to elevate our clients to the highest levels of proficiency and confidence. Our programs and services are designed and delivered to meet these standards. Our reputation is cultivated through building strong and lasting relationships with clients and delivering value in all we do.

Aviation is our passion. Under a strong set of core values, we are constantly seeking to improve on industry standards. Our goals are firmly supported by our commitment to unparalleled safety, professionalism, and client relations. At NOVA, we are committed to delivering services of the highest quality to our clients.



Here are their web pages: https://nova.aero/services

2 boaters died after they struck the Portage Road Bridge as they were trying to cross through a canal from Tub Lake to Barton Lake in Schoolcraft Township, Michigan

2 killed in boating accident in Kalamazoo County

By: 24 Hour News 8 web staff

September 9, 2018

 

SCHOOLCRAFT TOWNSHIP, Mich. (WOOD) — 

Police in Kalamazoo County are investigating a deadly boat crash that happened Saturday evening in Schoolcraft Township.

A boat was reportedly trying to cross through a canal from Tub Lake to Barton Lake when they struck a bridge around 5:45 p.m.

There were three people onboard at the time. Two of them were killed.

Police have not released any information about the third boater, nor have they released the identities of the two victims.




================================


Boat clips bridge near Vicksburg; police say two dead 

September 8, 2018, by James Gemmell


SCHOOLCRAFT TOWNSHIP, Mich. — 

Kalamazoo County Undersheriff James VanDyken says a Saturday boat crash on Barton Lake proved fatal.

He tells FOX 17 the boat clipped the Portage Road Bridge in Schoolcraft Township around 5:48 p.m.

The Sheriff’s Office says in a news release the boat was crossing through a canal from Tub Lake to Barton Lake when it struck the bridge.

“Three individuals were on board the boat, and two are confirmed deceased.”

Who was killed, and exactly how the crash happened was not immediately clear, says Undersheriff Van Dyken. A full investigation is underway.

Besides Sheriff’s Office personnel, the South County Fire & EMS units responded to the scene.

18-wheeler truck driver Joseph Cargal, 68, died after his FedEx 2002 Sterling tractor semi-trailer was hit head-on by the driver of an XPO Logistics, Inc. 2017 Peterbilt 18-wheeler truck, David Forehand, 57

By STACY FAISON/The Lufkin News


A Conroe man died following a two-vehicle crash on U.S. Highway 59 just south of Tenaha in Shelby County early Saturday morning, according to a press release from Texas Department of Public Safety Sgt. David Hendry.


Joseph Cargal, 68, was pronounced dead at the scene by a Shelby County justice of the peace following the 1:40 a.m. accident, according to the release.

A 2017 Peterbilt truck tractor semi-trailer traveling south on Highway 59 reportedly swerved to the left to avoid a tree that had fallen into the roadway and drove into the northbound lanes, striking a 2002 Sterling tractor semi-trailer driven by Cargal head-on, the release stated. The Sterling truck tractor then caught fire.

The driver of the Peterbilt, David Forehand, 57, of El Lago, was taken to a Nacogdoches hospital and later transported to a Tyler hospital for treatment, according to the release.

The highway was closed and traffic was detoured for most of the day while investigators and first responders worked to clear the scene.

An inspection of span on the remaining eastern portion of the old Tappan Zee Bridge had become destabilized and could fall

NEW YORK, NY — 

The Coast Guard has closed the eastern half of the channel in the Hudson River near the old Tappan Zee Bridge, Saturday.

On Friday evening, engineers requested Coast Guard assistance in closing the eastern half of the main Federal navigation channel after an inspection of span on the remaining eastern portion of the old Tappan Zee Bridge had become destabilized and could fall.

The old Tappan Zee Bridge is not currently in use and is in the process of demolition.

The engineers notified watchstanders at Coast Guard Sector New York to the issue at approximately 7:45 p.m. Friday night.

Due to the uncertainty and need to ascertain the potential impact of a collapse, it was requested the Coast Guard institute an emergency safety zone. The Hudson River was then completely closed to vessel traffic at the Tappan Zee Bridge.

At 12:00 p.m. Saturday, the western half of the Federal navigation channel was opened to vessel traffic. Vessels may transit the area after checking in with the Coast Guard patrol commander enforcing the safety zone.

Coast Guard Cutter Sturgeon Bay and a response boat crew from Coast Guard Maritime Safety and Security Team – New York, are on scene to enforce the safety zone. Other agencies assisting are Rockland County Sheriff, Westchester County Sheriff, and New York Department of Environmental Conservation.

The cause of the structural failure is still under investigation.

To get the latest updates on the condition of the channel click here.

===========================================




‘Potentially Dangerous Situation’ on Tappan Zee Delays Opening of New Cuomo Bridge Span
ImageThe first segment of the new Mario M. Cuomo Bridge was opened last year. The opening of the second was delayed over concerns that a piece of its predecessor, the Tappan Zee Bridge, far left, had become destabilized.CreditCreditChang W. Lee/The New York Times


By Mihir Zaveri
Sept. 8, 2018



The opening of the second span of the Mario M. Cuomo Bridge on Saturday was delayed after a piece of its predecessor, the old Tappan Zee Bridge, which is parallel to it, became destabilized and threatened to fall, officials said.

The Tappan Zee was being disassembled when the “potentially dangerous situation developed” and a piece of the old bridge became destabilized, Matthew J. Driscoll, the executive director of the New York State Thruway Authority, said in a statement on Saturday.

Mr. Driscoll said that the Tappan Zee was being evaluated but that the new span of the Mario M. Cuomo Bridge would remain closed until the authority was “assured there is no risk to the new span.”

At around 5 p.m. on Friday, crew members disassembling the old bridge heard a “loud pop” coming from the structure, Terry Towle, the president of Tappan Zee Constructors, told reporters on Saturday evening.

There appeared to be problems with joints that could have theoretically caused the old bridge to fall toward the new eastbound span, which is 160 feet away, he said.

Engineers inspected the old bridge and it did not appear that the new span was in danger, Mr. Towle said, adding that he had no estimate on when the eastbound span would open. He said he was waiting for additional assurances from multiple engineers that the old bridge was fully stabilized.

“I’m not going to take any risk whatsoever,” he said.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo told reporters earlier on Saturday that contractors on Friday had discovered a damaged and rusted piece of the old bridge that could pose a potential threat to the new span.

“We want to move the traffic over as quickly as possible,” Mr. Cuomo said. “The new bridge is ready.”

The Coast Guard had closed the eastern half of the main federal navigation channel of the Hudson River on Friday after the structural issue was found.

On Saturday, the Coast Guard reopened the western part of the river to vessels that checked with the patrol commander enforcing the safety zone, but it said the eastern half remained closed because of the destabilized bridge.

Coast Guard officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The problem came a day after Mr. Cuomo and other dignitaries gathered at the new bridge to celebrate the planned opening of the second span. Mr. Cuomo lauded the new bridge as a testament to “New York’s greatness” that “shows the world that we’re capable of dreaming big and delivering results for the people of this state.”

The first span of the new bridge, a $4 billion project, opened last year after decades of wrangling over whether to repair the Tappan Zee or build a new bridge.

The westbound span of the bridge had been carrying both eastbound and westbound traffic. Eastbound traffic was set to be shifted to the new span after it opened this weekend, but concerns about the stability of the old bridge delayed that shift.

The new bridge, which connects Rockland and Westchester Counties, is a two-span cable-stayed design, with the cables holding up its steel decks anchored to the tops of the angled central towers rather than to the shore.

The old Tappan Zee was closed to traffic in October and was being disassembled piece by piece. By December, each end of the bridge had been removed so that it did not connect to either bank of the Hudson River.

As the Democratic primary in New York on Thursday approaches, Mr. Cuomo’s opponents seized on the problem with the old bridge, with some suggesting that Mr. Cuomo prematurely announced the opening of the span of the new bridge. The goal had been to fully open the new bridge in 2018, and Mr. Cuomo said last month that he was looking at a mid-September completion.


“A ribbon-cutting ceremony should not have been held if the bridge span was not yet safe,” said Cynthia Nixon, the actor and activist who is challenging Mr. Cuomo in the Democratic primary.

Marcus J. Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive and Republican candidate for governor, said in a statement on Saturday that “it’s now clearer than ever that the bridge was opened to meet Governor Cuomo’s political agenda without regard for public safety.”

Stephanie Miner, the former mayor of Syracuse and an independent challenger of Mr. Cuomo, said in a statement: “What’s more important — fancy ceremonies so the governor can get good press before the primary or safety?”

Dani Lever, Mr. Cuomo’s press secretary, said in a statement: “The Mario M. Cuomo bridge is complete and ready for traffic and the action taken by TPZ Construction, given the potential issue on the old structure, was out of an abundance of caution and about public safety, not politics. Anyone trying to score political points off of it only underscores why they are unfit to serve.”

Mr. Towle said the abrupt change of plans for the new bridge was a blow for the engineers and workers who were prepared to open the new structure.

“We worked our butts off to get this eastbound span done,” he said. “The fact that it’s sitting empty waiting for traffic is somewhat of an embarrassment.”



===========================================




Tuesday, May 08, 2018

TARRYTOWN, Westchestser County (WABC) -- 

Crews have begun the delicate task of removing the superstructure of the old Tappan Zee Bridge, with special cranes lowering part of the center span that weighs 10 million pounds onto a barge.

The bridge was retired last fall when the replacement Mario M. Cuomo Bridge opened. For months, sections of roadway near the shore on either side of the Hudson River have been removed. The next phase will see demolition of the cantilever bridge, which has been cut into five sections.

"New York is leading the nation in rebuilding and reimagining our infrastructure so we can meet the demands of the fast-paced, 21st century economy," Cuomo said. "For decades, the Tappan Zee Bridge was a symbol of government incompetence and procrastination. But today's lowering of the main span of the old bridge marks the critical progress we have made. The new Mario M. Cuomo Bridge is critical to the growth and sustainability not only of the region, but of the entire state as we build a better, stronger New York."

The 2,415-foot main span of the Tappan Zee Bridge will be removed in five separate operations, the first of which began overnight on Monday. Eight hydraulic strand jacks are lowering the 4,750-ton suspended center span onto a barge to be transported offsite for further disassembly.

The steel will be cleaned and used as artificial reefs on Long Island.

The four other operations are scheduled to take place in the coming months. Barge-based cranes will remove two cantilever truss sections, while the two anchor spans will be lowered onto barges with the assistance of strand jacks. After the main span dismantling, the "I Lift NY" floating super crane will assist with the removal of the main span's steel support structures. The main span removal operation is expected to be complete by late fall.

In the meantime, construction continues on the new $4 billion, twin span bridge.

Currently, all traffic is being routed onto what what will eventually be the Rockland County-bound span. The second, Westchester County-bound crossing is scheduled to open before the end of the year.

FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON.... STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED IN NORTH CAROLINA, AS A DIRECT HIT IS FORECAST

 225 
WTNT31 KNHC 100853
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United
States on Thursday.

Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a
major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

================================================= 

431 
WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 56.3 West.  Florence is moving toward the west near
6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today.  A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue
through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern
U.S. coast on Thursday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

=============================== 

442 WTNT31 KNHC 090843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid
intensification is likely to begin by tonight.  Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

======================================= 

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is partially exposed on the
southwesterly edge of a large convective mass, with the overall
circulation somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast.
A blend of the latest Dvorak wind speed estimates from TAFB/SAB and
the CIMSS SATCON gives a value of 50 kt for this advisory.

While the winds at 200 mb are already from an easterly direction
near the center of Florence, there is significant shear from
northwesterly winds from 300-500 mb, undercutting the outflow layer.
This shear is forecast to relax by the global models over the next
36 hours as an anticyclone builds to the north of the storm, which
should promote some strengthening by Sunday. After 48 hours, the
deep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little
shear while the system is over very warm waters.  This pattern
favors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings
Florence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days.  The
intensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised
slightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the
guidance.  It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial
intensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks
to the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range.

The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt.  Florence is
expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours
under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic.  By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge
is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and
build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory
with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period.  It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall
guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction.  Unfortunately with such a
large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,
the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is
confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.