Russian Oil Heads West
Published in Oil Industry News on Friday, 31 July 2015
US-Russian
relations have been dominated by two major trends over the past few
years: the vast rise in US oil output and the biggest increase in
tensions between the two countries since the cold war over the Ukraine
crisis.So it might seem odd to discover that US imports of Russian crude oil in the past two months have averaged their highest level in three years.
Ship-tracking data shows that in June and July the US imported more than 70,000 barrels a day of Russian crude on average. This is the first time imports have hit that level in two consecutive months since 2012. In total, more than 4.6m barrels of Russian oil have arrived at US refineries over this period.
So what’s going on? It appears short-term trading opportunities have trumped geopolitics. The global crude glut, which was felt particularly keenly in north-west Europe in June and early July, drove physical cargo prices to multiyear lows in the region, and allowed Russian shipments to flow to the US East Coast.
Refineries in Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have been some of the biggest US buyers of Russian crude in the past two months, according to the data.
That trade has been helped by a narrowing in the price difference between the international Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark — the so-called Brent-WTI spread. Brent’s premium to WTI, which traded as wide as $13 a barrel as recently as March, sank to as low $2.65 a barrel in early June.
Add in discounts on physical cargoes and it was economical for more European crudes to flow west, especially once you calculate in the relatively low cost of sending oil by sea versus railing it from shale fields in North Dakota.
“It really is all about price — if crude, products or feedstocks are attractively priced it will move to highest valued market as long as [there are] no restrictions”, said Gary Ross, executive chairman at consultancy Pira Energy Group.
Although sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine have strained Moscow’s relations with the west they have so far allowed Russian oil and gas exports to keep flowing.
Arguably the collapse in crude oil prices since last summer has done more damage to Russia’s economy than sanctions.
Another factor behind higher flows has been the large increase in Russia’s exports from the east of the country, which were designed in part to open up new markets in Asia as Europe has threatened to diversify where it imports its energy from.
Russia’s ESPO crude oil blend, exported from the eastern port of Kozmino on the Sea of Japan, has made its way past Asia to plants in both Hawaii and California, the shipping data shows.
“With production down in May and June due to refinery and upstream maintenance on the US West Coast, refineries stepped up purchases of Russian ESPO crude,” said Amrita Sen, head of oil research at Energy Aspects in London
Two cargoes of Russian crude have also sailed across the Atlantic to the US Gulf Coast, including a relatively rare cargo of Siberian light.
The data most likely reflects a short-term trend rather than a sustained resurgence in Russian oil exports to the US, which as recently as 2009-2010 often topped 300,000 b/d.
And the shipments make up just a tiny amount of total US crude imports, which still average more than 7m b/d, despite the vast surge in US crude production in the past 5 years.
But the data show that when oil traders see an opportunity to move or buy a cargo at the best possible price, little things like geopolitics won’t easily stand in the way.