FIG 1: This aerial Feb. 17, 2015 file photo photo made
available by the Office of the Governor of West Virginia shows a derailed train
in Mount Carbon, WVa. As investigators in West Virginia and Ontario pick
through the wreckage from the latest pair of oil train derailments to result in
massive fires, U.S. transportation officials predict many more catastrophic
wrecks involving flammable fuels in coming years absent new regulations. (AP
Photo/ Office of the Governor of West Virginia, Steven Wayne Rotsch,File)
FIG 2: This Feb. 17, 2015 file photo, shows a train
derailment that sent a tanker with crude oil into the Kanawha River near Mount
Carbon, W.Va. As investigators in West Virginia and Ontario pick through the
wreckage from the latest pair of oil train derailments to result in massive
fires, U.S. transportation officials predict many more catastrophic wrecks
involving flammable fuels in coming years absent new regulations. (AP
Photo/Chris Tilley,File)
FIG 3: This July 8,
2013 file photo provided by Surete du Quebec, shows debris from a runaway train
in Lac-Megantic, Quebec, Canada. As investigators in West Virginia and Ontario
pick through the wreckage from the latest pair of oil train derailments to
result in massive fires, U.S. transportation officials predict many more
catastrophic wrecks involving flammable fuels in coming years absent new
regulations. (AP Photo/Surete du Quebec, The Canadian Press,File)
FIG 4: This July 8, 2013 file photo provided by Surete du
Quebec, shows wrecked oil tankers and debris from a runaway train in
Lac-Megantic, Quebec, Canada. As investigators in West Virginia and Ontario
pick through the wreckage from the latest pair of oil train derailments to
result in massive fires, U.S. transportation officials predict many more
catastrophic wrecks involving flammable fuels in coming years absent new
regulations. (AP Photo/Surete du Quebec, The Canadian Press, File)
FEBRUARY 22, 2015
WASHINGTON, DC
The federal government predicts that trains hauling crude
oil or ethanol will derail an average of 10 times a year over the next two
decades, causing more than $4 billion in damage and possibly killing hundreds
of people if an accident happens in a densely populated part of the U.S.
The projection comes from a previously unreported analysis
by the Department of Transportation that reviewed the risks of moving vast
quantities of both fuels across the nation and through major cities. The study
completed last July took on new relevance this week after a train loaded with
crude derailed in West Virginia, sparked a spectacular fire and forced the evacuation
of hundreds of families.
Monday's accident was the latest in a spate of fiery
derailments, and senior federal officials said it drives home the need for
stronger tank cars, more effective braking systems and other safety
improvements.
"This underscores why we need to move as quickly as
possible getting these regulations in place," said Tim Butters, acting
administrator for the Transportation Department's Pipeline and Hazardous
Materials Safety Administration.
The volume of flammable liquids transported by rail has
risen dramatically over the last decade, driven mostly by the oil shale boom in
North Dakota and Montana. This year, rails are expected to move nearly 900,000
car loads of oil and ethanol in tankers. Each can hold 30,000 gallons of fuel.
Based on past accident trends, anticipated shipping volumes
and known ethanol and crude rail routes, the analysis predicted about 15
derailments in 2015, declining to about five a year by 2034.
The 207 total derailments over the two-decade period would
cause $4.5 billion in damage, according to the analysis, which predicts 10
"higher consequence events" causing more extensive damage and
potential fatalities.
If just one of those more severe accidents occurred in a
high-population area, it could kill more than 200 people and cause roughly $6
billion in damage.
"Such an event is unlikely, but such damages could
occur when a substantial number of people are harmed or a particularly
vulnerable environmental area is affected," the analysis concluded.
The two fuels travel through communities with an average
population density of 283 people per square kilometer, according to the federal
analysis. That means about 16 million Americans live within a half-kilometer of
one of the lines.
Such proximity is equivalent to the zone of destruction left
by a July 2013 oil train explosion that killed 47 people and leveled much of
downtown Lac-Megantic, Quebec, the analysis said.
Damage at Lac-Megantic has been estimated at $1.2 billion or
higher.
A spokesman for the Association of American Railroads said
the group was aware of the Department of Transportation analysis but had no
comment on its derailment projections.
"Our focus is to continue looking at ways to enhance
the safe movement of rail transportation," AAR spokesman Ed Greenberg
said.
Both the railroad group and the Railway Supply Institute,
which represents tank car owners and manufacturers, said federal officials had
inflated damage estimates and exaggerated risk by assuming an accident even
worse than Lac-Megantic, which was already an outlier because it involved a
runaway train traveling 65 mph, far faster than others that had accidents.
To get to refineries on the East and West coasts and the
Gulf of Mexico, oil shipments travel through more than 400 counties, including
major metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago, Newark and
dozens of other cities, according to routing information obtained by The
Associated Press through public record requests filed with more than two dozen
states.
Since 2006, the U.S. and Canada have seen at least 21
oil-train accidents and 33 ethanol train accidents involving a fire, derailment
or significant amount of fuel spilled, according to federal accident records
reviewed by the AP.
At least nine of the trains, including the CSX train that
derailed in West Virginia, were hauling oil from the Northern Plains' Bakken
region that is known for being highly volatile. Of those, seven resulted in
fires.
Both the West Virginia accident and a Jan. 14 oil train
derailment and fire in Ontario involved recently built tank cars that were
supposed to be an improvement to a decades-old model in wide use that has
proven susceptible to spills, fires and explosions.
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Safety officials are pushing to make the tanker-car fleet
even stronger and confronting opposition from energy companies and other tank
car owners.
Industry representatives say it could take a decade to
retrofit and modify more than 50,000 tank cars, not the three years anticipated
by federal officials, who assumed many cars would be put to new use hauling
less-volatile Canadian tar-sands oil.
The rail industry's overall safety record steadily improved
over the past decade, dropping from more than 3,000 accidents annually to fewer
than 2,000 in 2013, the most recent year available, according to the Federal
Railroad Administration.
But the historical record masks a spike in crude and ethanol
accidents over the same time frame. Federal officials also say the sheer volume
of ethanol and crude that is being transported — often in trains more than a
mile long — sets the two fuels apart.
Most of the proposed rules that regulators are expected to
release this spring are designed to prevent a spill, rupture or other failure
during a derailment. But they will not affect the likelihood of a crash, said
Allan Zarembski, who leads the railroad engineering and safety program at the
University of Delaware.
Derailments can happen in many ways. A rail can break
underneath a train. An axle can fail. A vehicle can block a crossing. Having a
better tank car will not change that, but it should reduce the odds of a tank
car leaking or rupturing, he said.
Railroads last year voluntarily agreed to reduce oil train
speeds to 40 mph in urban areas. Regulators said they are considering lowering
the speed limit to 30 mph for trains not equipped with advanced braking
systems. Oil and rail industries say it could cost $21 billion to develop and
install the brakes, with minimal benefits.
Copyright: AP
Source: http://www.wsbtv.com,
