030
WTNT31 KNHC 110904 CCA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 48...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
Corrected time of next advisory
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.1 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
=============================================
092
WTNT31 KNHC 101448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 60.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur
late Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Further strengthening is anticipated, and Florence is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
=====================================================
225
WTNT31 KNHC 100853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday
and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United
States on Thursday.
Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a
major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
=================================================
431
WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 56.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near
6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue
through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern
U.S. coast on Thursday.
Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
===============================
442
WTNT31 KNHC 090843
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018
...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid
intensification is likely to begin by tonight. Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
=======================================
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018
Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is partially exposed on the
southwesterly edge of a large convective mass, with the overall
circulation somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast.
A blend of the latest Dvorak wind speed estimates from TAFB/SAB and
the CIMSS SATCON gives a value of 50 kt for this advisory.
While the winds at 200 mb are already from an easterly direction
near the center of Florence, there is significant shear from
northwesterly winds from 300-500 mb, undercutting the outflow layer.
This shear is forecast to relax by the global models over the next
36 hours as an anticyclone builds to the north of the storm, which
should promote some strengthening by Sunday. After 48 hours, the
deep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little
shear while the system is over very warm waters. This pattern
favors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings
Florence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised
slightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the
guidance. It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial
intensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks
to the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range.
The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt. Florence is
expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours
under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge
is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and
build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory
with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall
guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction. Unfortunately with such a
large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,
the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is
confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.
2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
