MEC&F Expert Engineers : Tracking Hurricane Matthew and its Projected Path

Monday, October 3, 2016

Tracking Hurricane Matthew and its Projected Path



Hurricane Matthew upgraded to category 5 storm





Could Hurricane Matthew impact North Carolina?


By Don Schwenneker
Monday, October 03, 2016 09:11AM
RALEIGH (WTVD) -- As Hurricane Matthew, a potentially devastating Category 4 storm, swirls across the Caribbean, many are wondering if it could impact North Carolina.



The speed of a frontal boundary headed our way will determine whether Matthew comes to visit here in the Tar Heel State. The latest plot from the WPC brings a cold front through Saturday into Sunday. That would be GREAT news because that front would push Matthew out into the ocean.


Latest from @NWSWPC shows cold front through on Sunday AM pushing Matthew away. Still a long A LOT of uncertainty. #watching pic.twitter.com/NbGVRZ0Eb3— Don Schwenneker (@BigweatherABC11) October 3, 2016


Some models show the storm hundreds of miles offshore. That would be the best solution but this far out it's all speculation.

Still, the Outer Banks could see some problems even it stays out to sea. And I wouldn't plan on going in the water at the beaches this weekend. Rip currents will be a problem Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

We'll have a much better idea on the path northward by Wednesday. By then, the storm will have passed over Cuba and that could significantly impact the northward path.
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Updated 33 mins ago
RALEIGH -- Hurricane Matthew is strengthening in the Caribbean and is expected to begin turning north over the weekend.

Rain and winds from the storm whipped at Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao early Friday as it passed north of the islands on a track through a part of the Caribbean that rarely sees such storms.

At 11 a.m Friday, the center of of the storm was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 70.8 West and moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph. A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the Guajira Peninsula later today and tonight and remain over the central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday.

Authorities on the Dutch Caribbean islands had urged residents to reinforce their homes and stock up on emergency supplies. Some streets flooded on Aruba and Curacao in the early hours of the storm's pass-by, though there were no reports of evacuations.

Matthew's approach prompted long lines at gas stations and supermarkets on the so-called "ABC islands." Authorities in Aruba ordered government offices closed Friday and Curacao's parliamentary elections were postponed until next week.

The hurricane also was headed for a brush with the Colombia-Venezuela border area near the Maracaibo oil region on Friday.

After beginning to turn to the north sometime Saturday, Matthew was forecast to head toward Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. The hurricane strengthened to a Category 3 storm early Friday and forecasters said it could arrive in Jamaica early Monday.

Matthew caused at least one death when it entered the Caribbean on Wednesday, with officials in St. Vincent reporting a 16-year-old boy was crushed by a boulder as he tried to clear a blocked drain.


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Hurricane Matthew grows to fearsome category 5 storm


Matthew is the strongest Atlantic storm since 2007.

Continuing to gain strength, Hurricane Matthew is now a fearsome category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph.

Forecasters say Matthew has become the strongest storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Matthew is packing top sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph) after gaining new strength Friday. The storm is about 80 miles (125 kilometers) northwest of Punta Gallinas, Colombia, and about 440 miles (710 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.




The center says that as of 11 p.m. Friday, the storm is moving west at 7 mph (11 kph).

Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm this afternoon and found top winds at 150 mph with gusts to 165 mph. The storm is moving to the west southwest at about 10 miles an hour and should take a turn to the northwest and then north over the weekend.

Matthew could strengthen a bit more before it begins to weaken a bit by Sunday. Still, Matthew is forecast to move across eastern Jamaica as a category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. A storm of that magnitude could be devastating.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Jamaica.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says the storm is located about 75 miles (120 kilometers) north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia, and about 465 miles (750 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.




In addition to a hurricane watch for Jamaica, authorities also issued a tropical storm watch for the southwestern coast of Haiti. The tropical storm watch is in effect from Haiti's southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince, Haiti.




Forecasters say Matthew is expected to turn toward the west-northwest by Saturday night and then toward the northwest on Sunday. The center says the storm's expected path over the central Caribbean is forecast to bring Matthew near Jamaica on Sunday.


ABC11 Meteorologist Steve Stewart says Matthews' movement is WSW and moving north of Colombia. The storm is forecast to make a turn to the north and eventually make it to the Bahamas by next Wednesday. If the storm delays its northward movement, then Florida could get impacts from Matthew.

If the turn is as forecast or quicker, the storm will likely stay out to sea. A front is forecast to move across the Eastern US next Friday. That will likely keep North Carolina in the clear as this storm would stay offshore.

"That's not a guarantee by any means, that's just how it's looking right now. A lot can happen between now and next Wednesday, so we'll keep monitoring closely," said Stewart.

Rain and winds from the storm whipped at Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao early Friday as it passed north of the islands on a track through a part of the Caribbean that rarely sees such storms.


Hurricane Matthew is now a category 4 hurricane

Authorities on the Dutch Caribbean islands had urged residents to reinforce their homes and stock up on emergency supplies. Some streets flooded on Aruba and Curacao in the early hours of the storm's pass-by, though there were no reports of evacuations.

Matthew's approach prompted long lines at gas stations and supermarkets on the so-called "ABC islands." Authorities in Aruba ordered government offices closed Friday and Curacao's parliamentary elections were postponed until next week.

Matthew caused at least one death when it entered the Caribbean on Wednesday, with officials in St. Vincent reporting a 16-year-old boy was crushed by a boulder as he tried to clear a blocked drain.

The Associated Press contributed to this report