MAY 15, 2015
The El Niño climate phenomenon is almost certain to last
through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. weather forecaster said,
raising the chance of heavy rain in the southern United States as well as South
America, and scorching heat in Asia that could devastate crops of thirsty food
staples like rice.
El Niño also reduces the likelihood of a busy hurricane
season, which lasts from June to November and can disrupt energy operations in
the Gulf of Mexico.
In its monthly report released on Thursday, the National
Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said El Niño, a phenomenon
which warms sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, had a 90 percent
likelihood of continuing through the summer. In April it estimated the odds at
70 percent.
El Niño conditions will likely last through the end of the
year, the CPC said, pegging the chance at 80 percent.
“[El Niño]’s definitely upon us and it should remain so for
the next few months,” said Don Keeney, a meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA
Weather Services.
A strong El Niño last appeared in 2009-2010 and resulted in
significant spikes in sugar, cocoa and wheat prices.
If a strong El Niño does develop the likely U.S. impacts
include wetter conditions across the southern U.S., from drought-stricken
California through Texas to Florida, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for
Weather Underground.
Recent rains across the central and southern Plains and
reaching as far as southern California “could be seen as a sneak preview,” he
wrote on his blog.
But the El Niño effect did not guarantee drought relief for
the Golden State, he said. “The strong El Niño of 1987-88 … produced a
drier-than-average winter from California to Washington,” he wrote.
While El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation, that
does not necessarily rule out a powerful storm, Masters added, citing “the
anemic 1992 season” which included the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew which
struck South Florida.
Forecasters have already predicted a below average Atlantic
hurricane season.
Thursday’s report helped cocoa futures prices move higher
due to prospects for drier weather in top-growing region West Africa, said Nick
Gentile, managing partner of NickJen Capital in New York.
The CPC report said that by early May weak to moderate El
Niño conditions were reflected across the equatorial Pacific.
The CPC said there was still “considerable uncertainty”
about the potential strength of the event.