Buffalo, NY – The “Historic” Lake Effect Snow Storm of October 12-13, 2006. The Current November 2014 Storm makes that one look like a dusting of snow.
The Snow Accumulation in October 2006
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By Comparison, the November 2014 Snowstrom has dumped eight (8) feet of snow in some areas, with 1-inch of rainfall forecast by Monday afternoon.
Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie
24" (Depew, Alden)
Duration: 16 hours +/-
Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of
season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters.
Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened
the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in regards
to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of
season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara
Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was
the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many
historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area.
The extreme parameters of the event were noted all week
and even mentioned six days ahead in forecast discussions. The depth of
cold air was almost unprecedented for so early in the season and Lake Erie was
a mild 62 degrees, three degrees above normal for October 12. Instability
levels were dramatic with 850 mb to surface delta t's of 24C or
so, inversion levels were simply off the chart at 25k feet with omega
and Cape values unprecedented for a lake effect event. The only
question, and a big one, was whether the boundary layer could be cold
enough to maintain snow with a flow off a 62 degree lake. It was
initially assumed that there would just enough moderation for the bulk of this
forecasted intense lake effect storm to fall as rain, with perhaps
some graupel or wet snow inland, but by Thursday morning (12th) it
was becoming marginal, and a Warning was issued
early Thursday afternoon for 1-6" of wet snow, specifically
because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf, and the
threat of serious damage and associated power outages.
The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning
and midday, and enough cold air became entrained to change over the
precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still, little
accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees
falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3" of snow,
which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened
overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours.
Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30 thousand feet, about double we have
previously observed in the worst events, this was directly attributed to the phenomenal
uplift over the 62 degree lake.
The heaviest snowband set up across the North Towns Thursday
evening, then drifted south to the Southtowns around midnight, then lifted
slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north
across the Northtowns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara
county Friday (13th) morning where it weakened and faded
to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer to
moderate.
It was apparent that the associated uplift and dynamic cooling
was so strong that it overcame any attempt of boundary layer warming from
the lake. There even may have been cooling near its edge because of this
dynamic cooling as evident by lowering dew points at Cleveland, Erie and
Dunkirk early in the event, perhaps a sign of air advecting into the lakeband
from the land.
Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few
inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches
fell in the first phase of the event between 3 pm and midnight, but the
snow water equivalent (swe) ratio was around 6:1 or so, hence the terrific
damage to trees and powerlines. The second phase featured slightly
drier snow, maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area, in
just 4 hours or so. The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only
blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of
2" or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7th
greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo.
The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans
counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county, but there was a
sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on
Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the
east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south.
Finally, all snow melted within about 48 to 60 hours with
little flooding. Here are some representative reports.
All reports off of Lake Erie...
The event had the most impact of any in our record. Not only
the amount of snow which was among our highest, but it was way out of season
and of course had the far greatest damage and power problems and affected over
a million, people in a dramatic fashion for many days. It therefore
earns...Five ***** Stars (plus!)
Image taken from a polar orbiter satellite on October 13 showing the extent of snow cover.